You got it right. I don't remember the number of AT&T customers, but it was huge and one can assume that the "mailing list" showed up at Directv or an affiliate.
DISH Network Reports Second Quarter 2009 Financial Results
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You got it right. I don't remember the number of AT&T customers, but it was huge and one can assume that the "mailing list" showed up at Directv or an affiliate.
I wouldn't underestimate DirecTV's vulnerability either especially the DirecTV-11 satellite. I think your estimate of an entire satellite that Dish is currently using for significant programming failing completely is based on a lack of understanding of satellite design and the redundacy built into them especially the newer satellites. The E-2 satellite was a very old satellite and was beyond its expected life when it failed. The E-5 satellite was used for a long time even with some major failures. The problem was a bad estimate on the amount of fuel it had left although I think Dish was just fooling the FCC on what they thought its life was when it was moved to 148 W just to extend its licensing at that slot. You also underestimate Dish's spotbeam overlap. Ciel-2 provides a great deal of backup for E-10 and Dish will have even more backup when E-14 is launched to 119 W perhaps only a few months after the DirecTV-12 satellite is launched. Certainly the failures on the E-12 satellite are a concern but E-15 is scheduled for launch in late 2010 to augment and reduce the E-12 power loading.
There is always a negative correlation between revenue/income and sub gains. When they add more subs they lose money due to setup costs. This is why Dish had good profits when they had net sub loss and Direct had profits decrease when they had record sub gains.
Then these negatives will have to be reported the next quarter. Ultimately, they will eventually have to face reality.
There's a difference between robust backup and much needed capacity. DIRECTV would appear to have needed D12 last year to provide much needed addtional HD and HD LIL capacity.
At the same time, a similarly catastrophic failure on either the D10 or D11 satellite constitutes losing half of their HD CONUS capacity and almost 1/3rd of their HD LIL capacity. Since when has putting all your eggs in one basket been a good thing?
The likelihood of a catastrophic in-orbit failure is miniscule compared to the likelihood of a failure to reach the desired orbit.
Charlie is pretty good at leasing satellites and if you look at what he has going, it represents a whole lot more bandwidth and redundancy than DIRECTV has.
Hopefully the probabilities will be academic and neither organization will experience failures on the satellites that they're using but I submit that DISH appears to be much better positioned to handle a failure than DIRECTV is.
Didn't I tell everyone a few days ago when Directv announced their earnings that this will be the last quarter that Dish lost subscribers!
I was right!
Next quarter, look at the 300,000 subscribers gain that Directv signed up to start to shift over to Dish.
I was right!
Next quarter, look at the 300,000 subscribers gain that Directv signed up to start to shift over to Dish.
So what helps them this quarter will hurt them next quarter. Those subscribers that end up getting shut off for nonpay will ultimately show up as a loss on top of the additional loss they will see this coming quarter. This could hurt next quarters results unless they do the same thing again.
Unlike you, I actually hope both companies do well. I am glad to see Dish gain and I thought they would have a net gain as well. Unfortunately, (And I do not want this to happen) I think Dish will have a net loss next quarter. Not a bad one, close to 0, but a loss non the less.
You never believe anything that happens to be negative about Dish ore positive about Direct.
Unlike you, I actually hope both companies do well. I am glad to see Dish gain and I thought they would have a net gain as well. Unfortunately, (And I do not want this to happen) I think Dish will have a net loss next quarter. Not a bad one, close to 0, but a loss non the less.
You should start to collect fees for your E* investment club seeing that you have predicted the stock gains
previously someone commented on charlie wasting money on the fcc spectrum auctions. yeah, now it does seem like a waste. but i was thinking, couldnt charlie use this spectrum to provide internet to his customers instead of having to rely on partner phone companies? perhaps with the 922 being wifi capable, it could pick up the wifi, then proivde service to the home by connecting a router to its ethernet port. perhaps even provide a voip system as well? by doing this he would be able to undercut directv in many markets where he has spectrum ownership.
I was hoping to join the discussion this morning, but a boat-load of work was waiting for me at the office. The quarterly report was surprising, but it's nice to see Dish Network not losing customers in almost 18-months. Of course, they are still a long way from righting their ship considering D* added 223K during 2Q and their subscriber numbers were bumped upward an estimated 20-30k due to the analog-to-DTV transition.Alright, where is RiffJim, time to eat crow.
Still waiting for the Sling Loaded T2200S to hit the streets...and yes, I know it's made by E*
As a Dish Network retailer you're in an excellent position to estimate the quarterly subscriber numbers.
As a Dish Network retailer you're in an excellent position to estimate the quarterly subscriber numbers.
I thought most analysts survey the retailers all around to get an estimate of the sub gains, how come they predicted 100K sub loss? Forgot to survey Claude Greiner and DodgerKing?
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