DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[dtv757]

Well D* gave me half off NBA LP and MLB EI so yea it was around that range

NBA LP was $100 , MLB EI was $60

I dont order NHL but I believe that price dropped to $60 this year so yea 50-100 range would be around same price as other leagues...

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

[Bruce]

I think the suggestion is that it would be included in Prime. Which IMO is more likely than $300 / season. People again forgetting they don't need to make all the annual money back in sub fees. There's value above and beyond that and it isn't required to be a main pillar of their service the way it was for DirecTV at one point.

I think a $50-$100 fee for the NFL season would be impulse-purchase territory for even tangential fans of the sport, they would print money.

I have been saying the same thing in this thread but I keep being told I do not know what I am talking about, by a bunch of people who do not have a Business Degree like myself( I assume).

If you factor in percentages, it makes it more likely Amazon Prime can attract more customers to Sunday Ticket, right now 2 million DirecTV get NFL Sunday Ticket, which is basically 20% of total D* Sat subscribers ( 13 million out of 15 million total AT&T TV subs), how many pay for it is up for debate.

20% of Prime Customers ( in the United States, more then 150 million households) is 24 million, now if they sell it at the impulse price point of $100, that is $2.4 billion, $400 million above the break even price that the NFL is asking for ST.

I will also contend if the price point is low enough, they can attract even more then the 24 million, based on ratings for the National Games ( NFL‘s ratings on a whole are up 10% for the year) there is interest for out of market games, I would guess 30-40 million depending on the price.

If Apple gets it, obviously it will be used as a loss leader to attract more customers, I have never been a fan of loss leader economics, it always seems to work against you in the end.

For example, look at DirecTV using it as a loss leader, they have lost 6-8 million subscribers in the last 6 years and $600-800 million a year on NFLST, they no longer can attract enough new customers to make up ( or even come close) to that loss.

 

[Juan]

I have been saying the same thing in this thread but I keep being told I do not know what I am talking about, by a bunch of people who do not have a Business Degree like myself( I assume).

If you factor in percentages, it makes it more likely Amazon Prime can attract more customers to Sunday Ticket, right now 2 million DirecTV get NFL Sunday Ticket, which is basically 20% of total D* Sat subscribers ( 13 million out of 15 million total AT&T TV subs), how many pay for it is up for debate.

20% of Prime Customers ( in the United States, more then 150 million households) is 24 million, now if they sell it at the impulse price point of $100, that is $2.4 billion, $400 million above the break even price that the NFL is asking for ST.

I will also contend if the price point is low enough, they can attract even more then the 24 million, based on ratings for the National Games ( NFL‘s ratings on a whole are up 10% for the year) there is interest for out of market games, I would guess 30-40 million depending on the price.

If Apple gets it, obviously it will be used as a loss leader to attract more customers, I have never been a fan of loss leader economics, it always seems to work against you in the end.

For example, look at DirecTV using it as a loss leader, they have lost 6-8 million subscribers in the last 6 years and $600-800 million a year on NFLST, they no longer can attract enough new customers to make up ( or even come close) to that loss.

With your business degree you should also realize that with the current rate of inflation that most people are cutting back.... That is one of the big reasons why directv and pay tv in general are losing customers at a high rate. If nobody wants sunday ticket basically for free from direct tv ..they sure as heck not going to pay premium price to apple or amazon

 

[Jimbo]

I have been saying the same thing in this thread but I keep being told I do not know what I am talking about, by a bunch of people who do not have a Business Degree like myself( I assume).

If you factor in percentages, it makes it more likely Amazon Prime can attract more customers to Sunday Ticket, right now 2 million DirecTV get NFL Sunday Ticket, which is basically 20% of total D* Sat subscribers ( 13 million out of 15 million total AT&T TV subs), how many pay for it is up for debate.

20% of Prime Customers ( in the United States, more then 150 million households) is 24 million, now if they sell it at the impulse price point of $100, that is $2.4 billion, $400 million above the break even price that the NFL is asking for ST.

I will also contend if the price point is low enough, they can attract even more then the 24 million, based on ratings for the National Games ( NFL‘s ratings on a whole are up 10% for the year) there is interest for out of market games, I would guess 30-40 million depending on the price.

If Apple gets it, obviously it will be used as a loss leader to attract more customers, I have never been a fan of loss leader economics, it always seems to work against you in the end.

For example, look at DirecTV using it as a loss leader, they have lost 6-8 million subscribers in the last 6 years and $600-800 million a year on NFLST, they no longer can attract enough new customers to make up ( or even come close) to that loss.

Yes, if they decide to sell ST for $50-100, they can print money .... thats a BIG IF ....
IF they do for that price, it will be going up tremendously each and every year after that.

Don't get me wrong, I'd Love that price point, but just don't see it, seeing they KNOW what people have been willing to pay for it for the last 25 years.

Also, You make it sound like D* is losing subs because of ST, that is not true. ST or not, D* would still be losing these subs, it has very little to do with ST.

 

[Bruce]

Yes, if they decide to sell ST for $50-100, they can print money .... thats a BIG IF ....
IF they do for that price, it will be going up tremendously each and every year after that.

No one knows what Amazon/Apple/whoever will charge when they have it and in the future, Amazon has the most potential to be less expensive because of their high sub numbers.

Don't get me wrong, I'd Love that price point, but just don't see it, seeing they KNOW what people have been willing to pay for it for the last 25 years.

But not that many people have been willing to pay it, based on 20% who subscribe to it, percentages do not usually change that much over a lifetime of service, so even when they had 20 million DirecTV subs, that would only be 4 million NFLST customers and of those, how many were paying and how many were giveaways.

Also, You make it sound like D* is losing subs because of ST, that is not true. ST or not, D* would still be losing these subs, it has very little to do with ST.

Never said that at all, all Traditional Providers are losing customers, the only ones gaining a little are Hulu Live and YTTV ( together they have as many subs as Dish Sat.-8 million), but their gains are not even close to the losses of Traditional Providers.

It is now being reported that, in the age range of 18-48, the majority do not have a Live TV service, over 48 and the majority do, these are trends that do not change, if you do not have Live TV service at 30 ( my son’s age) why would you get it at 40.

Live TV subs are dying off, think of what happened with the Bill Knapps Restaurant Chain, their customer base was dying off, could not attract younger customer. then they became unprofitable and were gone.

Of course there will still be those who want a Live TV service in the future, but will it have enough customers to be profitable, in about 10 years I doubt it.

That is why every darn TV/Movie studio is starting up and putting there best/new content on a streaming service, they know where the future is.

And not every streaming service will make it, some will go out of business ( looking at Peacock), some will and surprise us ( Paramount+ is rumored to be at 50 million here in the states, at a $5 per sub average, that is $3 billion a year) and some will merge Discovery/Warner/CNN/HBO for example.

 

[Don in CT]

With your business degree you should also realize that with the current rate of inflation that most people are cutting back.... That is one of the big reasons why directv and pay tv in general are losing customers at a high rate. If nobody wants sunday ticket basically for free from direct tv ..they sure as heck not going to pay premium price to apple or amazon

People have been cutting the cable long before inflation set in.

 

[SamCdbs]

I have been saying the same thing in this thread but I keep being told I do not know what I am talking about, by a bunch of people who do not have a Business Degree like myself( I assume).

If you factor in percentages, it makes it more likely Amazon Prime can attract more customers to Sunday Ticket, right now 2 million DirecTV get NFL Sunday Ticket, which is basically 20% of total D* Sat subscribers ( 13 million out of 15 million total AT&T TV subs), how many pay for it is up for debate.

20% of Prime Customers ( in the United States, more then 150 million households) is 24 million, now if they sell it at the impulse price point of $100, that is $2.4 billion, $400 million above the break even price that the NFL is asking for ST.

Well, you are just making a fundamental mistake.

You are treating this like it was a product. Like a grocery. "well, Product X gets a 20% market share in Georgia, so lets start selling it in California and we will probably get 20% there too, and that is a lot of money."

And that is probably true. Because no one living in California is going to drive to Georgia to buy groceries.

The mistake you make is assuming that the %age of Americans with DirecTV, and who they are, is just some kind of randomly assigned thing. Nope. Not at all. Who has DirecTV? People that want it. If you want it, you call the nice DirecTV lady and she will send a truck right out and now you have it.

So, who has ST now? Essentially every one that wants it. The idea that there are people staring blankly at their Prime app, wishing like heck it would get them ST, is just not accurate. Because they have the sense to call DirecTV and get it.

Thus the number of potential subscribers to ST is a known number. The number of people who have it right now.

 

[Don in CT]

Well, you are just making a fundamental mistake.

You are treating this like it was a product. Like a grocery. "well, Product X gets a 20% market share in Georgia, so lets start selling it in California and we will probably get 20% there too, and that is a lot of money."

And that is probably true. Because no one living in California is going to drive to Georgia to buy groceries.

The mistake you make is assuming that the %age of Americans with DirecTV, and who they are, is just some kind of randomly assigned thing. Nope. Not at all. Who has DirecTV? People that want it. If you want it, you call the nice DirecTV lady and she will send a truck right out and now you have it.

So, who has ST now? Essentially every one that wants it. The idea that there are people staring blankly at their Prime app, wishing like heck it would get them ST, is just not accurate. Because they have the sense to call DirecTV and get it.

Thus the number of potential subscribers to ST is a known number. The number of people who have it right now.

When DTV loses ST, how many people will drop and move to the next thing.

 

[Bruce]

Well, you are just making a fundamental mistake.

You are treating this like it was a product. Like a grocery. "well, Product X gets a 20% market share in Georgia, so lets start selling it in California and we will probably get 20% there too, and that is a lot of money."

And that is probably true. Because no one living in California is going to drive to Georgia to buy groceries.

The mistake you make is assuming that the %age of Americans with DirecTV, and who they are, is just some kind of randomly assigned thing. Nope. Not at all. Who has DirecTV? People that want it. If you want it, you call the nice DirecTV lady and she will send a truck right out and now you have it.

So, who has ST now? Essentially every one that wants it. The idea that there are people staring blankly at their Prime app, wishing like heck it would get them ST, is just not accurate. Because they have the sense to call DirecTV and get it.

Thus the number of potential subscribers to ST is a known number. The number of people who have it right now.

Untrue, I wish to subscribe to it and want nothing to do with DirecTV based on their current business model and will once it is with Amazon.

I cannot be the only one.

Also there probably are customers that even have DirecTV and want to get NFLST but not wish to pay $300.

Lastly, it is a product and a product without competition, Sunday Night Football average ratings this year was 18.5 million for National Games, that is 16.5 million more then subs for NFLST and 5.5 million viewers then DirecTV has on a whole, are you trying to say none of them would not want to get NFLST if the price is right?

Another point I will make right now, AT&T ( DirecTV) does not want it anymore, the NFL wants 2 billion dollars a year, for DirecTV, just to break even, they would need 6.6 million customers at $300 each and they can only get 2 million now at $300, I really doubt they all pay so how many are giveaways or discounted, I do not know.

 

[Juan]

People have been cutting the cable long before inflation set in.

Because it cost too much and wages haven't been rising as fast as satellite tv prices...you know inflation...only its alot worse now

 

[Don in CT]

Because it cost too much and wages haven't been rising as fast as satellite tv prices...you know inflation...only its alot worse now

Most of those costs are greedy ESPN.

 

[SamCdbs]

Untrue, I wish to subscribe to it and want nothing to do with DirecTV based on their current business model and will once it is with Amazon.

I cannot be the only one.

There are probably maybe 20 or even 30 more people that are doing that. You show 'em.

Everybody else called the nice DirecTV lady.

The point is that NFLST will be tied to something. It cannot make money on a cash basis. Never has, never will. The idea that millions of people are staring dumbly at their Prime app, waiting to buy ST is just not accurate. People that want ST, HAVE ST.

 

[SamCdbs]

When DTV loses ST, how many people will drop and move to the next thing.

Well, different discussion. First look at the subscriber numbers, for the service and for ST. Fair to assume that everyone with the service, and not ST, is perfectly happy. How many people with ST would drop DTV without it? Don't know. My guess would be less than a quarter. DirecTV remains the superior way to consume TV.

 

[Bruce]

Most of those costs are greedy ESPN.

Actually all sports channels, if you add up subscriber’s fees of all the ESPNs, RSN(s) then the other channels like Fox Sports 1 and 2, College Football Channel ( like Big Ten for example), NFL Network, etc, etc, I would think it would have to be at least $15-20 a month.

 

[Don in CT]

Well, different discussion. First look at the subscriber numbers, for the service and for ST. Fair to assume that everyone with the service, and not ST, is perfectly happy. How many people with ST would drop DTV without it? Don't know. My guess would be less than a quarter. DirecTV remains the superior way to consume TV.

I bet 15% of all DTV subscribers are only there for ST. Once it's gone so are they.

 

[Don in CT]

Actually all sports channels, if you add up subscriber’s fees of all the ESPNs, RSN(s) then the other channels like Fox Sports 1 and 2, College Football Channel ( like Big Ten for example), NFL Network, etc, etc, I would think it would have to be at least $15-20 a month.

ESPN is $11 a month alone.

 

[Bruce]

ESPN is $11 a month alone.

yech, I cannot remember the last time I watched ESPN.

 

[Bruce]

I bet 15% of all DTV subscribers are only there for ST. Once it's gone so are they.

20% of DirecTV subs have it now, I would guess 10-15%.

But before they quit reporting subscribers numbers, it was losing more then 400,000 a quarter.

 

[NashGuy]

I bet 15% of all DTV subscribers are only there for ST. Once it's gone so are they.

Yeah. On another forum I recently hazarded a more conservative estimate of about 10%, meaning the loss of an additional 1 million or so DTV subs in 2023 after they lose NFL ST.

Aside from that, yes, there are millions of folks who would be interested in buying NFL ST, either as a standalone streaming package or as an add-on to Prime Video (which they probably already have) or to Apple TV+ (which is only $5/mo, so who cares), but who have been unwilling to do a two-year contract with satellite TV in order to get NFL ST.

 

[NashGuy]

20% of DirecTV subs have it now, I would guess 10-15%.

But before they quit reporting subscribers numbers, it was losing more then 400,000 a quarter.

Just curious, where is that 20% number from? I got the (perhaps false) impression that DTV was giving NFL ST away for free to all their subs on the Choice package and up this year, not just to new subs on those packages. But maybe it was just some percentage of longtime customers who were offered NFL ST for free as an inducement to stay?