Yeah, I would agree that ESPN's best days are behind it. We're now at a point where broadcast and cable channels (with ESPN being the most expensive of them all) can't increase their carriage prices enough to offset the number of folks who keep dumping cable TV and switching to less expensive streaming apps (and/or free OTA). As the most recent quarterly earnings numbers from major network owners (e.g. Disney, Paramount, etc.) revealed, it would appear that broadcast and cable networks have collectively peaked in terms of the total amount of revenue they bring in and now a broad industry decline has begun. The only way to increase revenue from the content contained in those linear channels is to also make it available via their DTC streaming apps. And of course, a lot of that has already been done via Hulu, Paramount+, Peacock, HBO Max and Discovery+. The only way forward is to let the apps continue to cannibalize more and more of the linear channel content, including the crown jewels: live sports and live news.
So I do believe that in 2024 or 2025, we'll see the entirety of ESPN's live sports portfolio made available via standalone direct-to-consumer apps. Maybe they do away with ESPN+ and have two app-based services, ESPN Pro and ESPN College. Something like $15/mo each or both for $22/mo. Probably save another few bucks if combined with Disney+. It won't ever be as profitable as ESPN used to be on cable, though, because far fewer households will choose to pay for it than was the case when ESPN was an unavoidable part of the cable TV bundle.
In the longer term, I'm not sure I see a way for ESPN to survive at all. Because I think we'll see a sprinkling of the most popular sports content -- including playoffs and championships (e.g. March Madness, World Series, etc.) plus all NFL games and a selection of regular season games from big sports -- included in the major general entertainment streaming services like Disney+, Prime Video, Apple TV+, etc. And then everything else will be in sports-specific services dedicated to particular sports/leagues/teams (i.e. the successor to the current RSNs). I don't see why popular NCAA sports won't eventually go this route too. Just as MLB has MLB.tv, why wouldn't there be an NCAA app (or apps for each major conference such as the SEC, Big 10, etc.)? To me, ESPN looks like something caught in the middle between those two categories of streamers, meaning it's probably unsustainable.
As for the RSNs, I don't see the leagues forcing packages, such as on MLB.tv, that include both in- and out-of-market games. I'm sure they will offer an "everything" package at the top end, for a big price, but just as they now let you subscribe to just a single out-of-market team, I feel sure that they'll also let you subscribe to just a single in-market team.