DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[Joe The Dragon]

As only two streamers have ever made a cent in profit, and both of those, particularly Netflix, are now losing the rights to that content, the jury is still out as to how many survive. As a consumer, the less the better, particularly if everyone of the them tries to jazz up their melodrama offerings with sports. No desire to pay five or six bills for worthless content just to get the sports I want.

As to ESPN, this is really getting to voodoo economics area. ESPN (linear) remains mega-profitable. ESPN+ has never made a cent. ESPN is profitable because it is bundled in every cable/DBS/internet linear TV package in the entire country. Not having it is a death sentence for any and all that crazy. Even though, it costs a lot and most people don’t watch it at all.

And Disney is on the hook for, literally, billions of $$ for future sports rights to fuel the goodness that is ESPN. Disney may very well be looking a lot like Diamond Sports in a few years. Don’t care, awful company.

So they are going to, somehow, for $15/month (which is way less than they get now from bundled linear ESPN plus ESPN+) sell it a la carte? To people who left traditional linear TV mainly to save money by doing without the sports they do not wish to watch?

Right. Every cable company in the world would drop ESPN, and its high fees, the next afternoon. Disney is not that stupid. Neither is Fox. Which is why ESPN, and its imitators with NEVER be sold a la carte. NEVER.

It is simple math.

but what happen when it's time for the next ESPN renewal?
Will the cable/DBS/internet linear TV package systems push back?
about ESPN+ being sold?
Demand that if we are being forced to have ESPN then we want all live ESPN+ content be on our linear TV system?
Say that if main ESPN content becomes part about ESPN+ then we want to sell ESPN as la carte

 

[Juan]

but what happen when it's time for the next ESPN renewal?
Will the cable/DBS/internet linear TV package systems push back?
about ESPN+ being sold?
Demand that if we are being forced to have ESPN then we want all live ESPN+ content be on our linear TV system?
Say that if main ESPN content becomes part about ESPN+ then we want to sell ESPN as la carte

Then player salaries will dramatically collapse due to lack of revenue to the sports leagues

 

[SamCdbs]

I know we are saying that in jest, but, actually, yes player salaries are driven, in large measure, by TV rights and TV rights are predicated upon “everyone” paying for ESPN and its imitators. Sports represents a much larger %age of a linear TV bill than the ratings indicate, everything being equal.

A future world where only people who want sports pay for them, and, worse yet from that perspective, only people who want a particular sport pay for that particular sport is one of significantly lower revenue. To cover the money they have already committed, the price for the linear sports channels is so high that many people will not be able to afford it. This quandary is the catch 22 that Diamond Sports is already in, and Disney, Fox and the others will find themselves in soon enough.

The streamers, likewise, better be careful. Nothing is really free, and in an environment where profit is rare, committing big $$ for content most do not want is a problem.

Which, back to ST, is why it will 100% be an extra charge and predicated upon first buying the underlaying package.

 

[meStevo]

Then player salaries will dramatically collapse due to lack of revenue to the sports leagues

Well with your track record of predictions I think we all know what is more likely to happen.

 

[meStevo]

Don't see why NFLST would be part of this Apple Event. A year away, and the focus is all this new hardware.

 

[NashGuy]

Paramount has put the majority of their older content on Pluto, that is where, they believe, their library will maximize revenue for the company.

Peacock is the most surprising, they have so much Content from Universal TV, yet are not using it ( and still selling the rights to other services), but they are spending money for content for Peacock from other studios, for example, spent a lot for the rights to That 70’s Show, which was produced/owned by Fox/Disney.

and will continue to offer a bundle with ESPN.

Will become Warner/Discovery, only name that makes sense.

The most likely to last based on their subscriber’s numbers.

They really need to do something, with only 13 million paying subs and Paramount way over 40 million, I just do not see how they can make it up.

already kind of merging with Paramount+ ( a year Commercial free P+ with Showtime is only $129 a year), I remember when Showtime was $15 a month a few years ago, that was $180 a year.

Deadmeat all on it’s own, Lionsgate has been trying to sell it for a couple of years now, no takers, they also paid way too much for the channel in 2016, over $4 billion.

Also deadmeat, like ESPN, most of it’s income comes from per sub fees on Traditional Service, also 30 million gone, 8 million more per sub fees gone each year, I cannot see how they can make it up when everything goes streaming only.

They have to merge or sell their content to others.

I doubt any of these streaming services will be available in their current configuration five years from now. Even WBD's forthcoming unified service, HBO Discovery (or whatever they call it), doesn't look like it's going to be a Netflix-challenger. And that company has so much debt, hence the moves they're making now to cut back on content, try to protect their sinking cable TV ship, and become more timid rather than bold on streaming. Many insiders think Zas is just shuffling things around until some further M&A action engulfs the company in a few years. I'd agree.

Everything else, Paramount+, Peacock, etc., they're just sub-scale, too small. Maybe if those guys had come out of the gate a few years ago globally with something like their new European joint venture SkyShowtime...

SkyShowtime | The New Home of Iconic Entertainment

Are you ready? It's almost SkyShowtime. The new home of iconic entertainment the world can’t wait to watch, streaming soon.

www.skyshowtime.com

Or if merger talks a few years ago between Warner and Universal had come to fruition. But right now, old Hollywood can be divided between Disney and everyone else, with "everyone else" too divided to survive long-term. Government should probably never have allowed Disney to buy most of Fox, or AT&T to buy Warner, or Comcast to buy Universal.

 

[NashGuy]

ESPN is profitable because it is bundled in every cable/DBS/internet linear TV package in the entire country. Not having it is a death sentence for any and all that crazy. Even though, it costs a lot and most people don’t watch it at all.

ESPN is a big reason why so many people keep dumping cable TV. It accounts for about $13 out of your monthly bill, yet most cable TV subscribers seldom, if ever, watch any ESPN channels.

And there are a few cable channel packages out there that exclude ESPN. Sling (Blue), Philo TV, some skinny packages available from Charter.

 

[Bruce]

Or if merger talks a few years ago between Warner and Universal had come to fruition. But right now, old Hollywood can be divided between Disney and everyone else, with "everyone else" too divided to survive long-term. Government should probably never have allowed Disney to buy most of Fox, or AT&T to buy Warner, or Comcast to buy Universal.

Comcast buying Universal turned out well as far as business goes, Disney/Fox is still too soon to tell ( and Covid really messed up plans they had).

AT&T destroyed Warner, just like they helped destroy DirecTV ( changing market conditions helped also).

Warner is so messed up, there is no way Zaslav can turn things around, just too much debt.

When I read they are about to run out of money, only enough to release 2 movies this year ( Black Adam and Don’t Worry Daring), I knew they were doomed.

If Black Adam is a flop( budget was $185 million + marketing, needs to make at least $500 million to break even) and there is no way Don’t Worry Daring is going to make big money, they will be dead meat.

Merging with Universal is about the only hope they have.

Warner Bros. Reportedly "Can't Afford" to Release More Than 2 Movies This Year - Inside the Magic

Warner Brothers reportedly can't release more than 2 movies for this year due to some alarming reasons that might affect future DC projects.

insidethemagic.net

 

[Bruce]

Apple show done, no Sunday Ticket announcement.

 

[Juan]

So apple has some common sense after all

 

[Bruce]

So apple has some common sense after all

Means nothing yet.

Goodell said Fall is when the announcement will happen, not Fall yet.

Rumors are that Apple will have another event in October.

I still hope Amazon gets it, but the NFL wants Apple.

 

[comp9]

I wasnt expecting it.. Apple usually never mentions software at hardware events

 

[Juan]

I wasnt expecting it.. Apple usually never mentions software at hardware events

Appletv wasn't on the schedule

 

[slice1900]

but what happen when it's time for the next ESPN renewal?
Will the cable/DBS/internet linear TV package systems push back?
about ESPN+ being sold?
Demand that if we are being forced to have ESPN then we want all live ESPN+ content be on our linear TV system?
Say that if main ESPN content becomes part about ESPN+ then we want to sell ESPN as la carte

It isn't just ESPN, cable providers have to drop Disney and other Disney owned channels - including the O&O local ABC affiliates in many of the biggest cities. They all bundled together when Disney negotiates, all or nothing take it or leave it.

It will actually get harder for them to drop ESPN as time goes on, because cord cutters are overwhelmingly non sports fans. So the percentage of cable/satellite subscribers who watch ESPN is going up as those non sports watchers cut the cord.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

So apple has some common sense after all

Why, did another streamer sign a deal?

 

[JUCJ85]

Put me in the I don't care who gets it, even if streaming only, which I know it will be, my internet is completely fixed, so I think I've made too much ion a deal out of this.

 

[NashGuy]

The industry consensus seems to be that there will be 4 or 5 big global general entertainment streaming services left standing when the dust settles. Seems clear that Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+, and Disney+ will be 4 of them. (Disney+ will eventually gobble up its sibling Hulu, by the way.) Question is whether enough of the "leftovers" -- HBO Max/Discovery, Paramount+, Peacock, Showtime, Starz, AMC+ -- will merge in order to form something formidable enough to survive and thrive in that fifth spot.

Here's former Disney CEO Bob Iger saying the same thing I did earlier this week: not all current streaming services will survive, although Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+ and Disney+ are safe. It's all the others -- HBO Max/Discovery, Paramount+, Peacock, etc. -- that are in danger.

Bob Iger Says Not All Subscription Streaming Video Services Will Survive - Media Play News

In global media landscape gone streaming, survival of the fittest among subscription video platforms is an ongoing battle spearheaded by four likely winners: Netflix, Disney+, Prime Video — and Apple TV+? That’s the mindset of Bob Iger, recently retired former Disney CEO and executive chairman...

www.mediaplaynews.com

 

[meStevo]

Makes sense, streaming is still experiencing explosive growth, status quo has not yet settled in, we've already seen consolidation and aborted plans.

It's not unlike the contraction the traditional providers are experiencing - the bottom and their future status quo (or even their future viability as standalone companies) has yet to be determined.

 

[NashGuy]

Comcast buying Universal turned out well as far as business goes, Disney/Fox is still too soon to tell ( and Covid really messed up plans they had).

AT&T destroyed Warner, just like they helped destroy DirecTV ( changing market conditions helped also).

Warner is so messed up, there is no way Zaslav can turn things around, just too much debt.

When I read they are about to run out of money, only enough to release 2 movies this year ( Black Adam and Don’t Worry Daring), I knew they were doomed.

If Black Adam is a flop( budget was $185 million + marketing, needs to make at least $500 million to break even) and there is no way Don’t Worry Daring is going to make big money, they will be dead meat.

Merging with Universal is about the only hope they have.

Warner Bros. Reportedly "Can't Afford" to Release More Than 2 Movies This Year - Inside the Magic

Warner Brothers reportedly can't release more than 2 movies for this year due to some alarming reasons that might affect future DC projects.

insidethemagic.net

Eh, if Comcast buying Universal turned out so great, why was Comcast's CEO trying to unload it this year in a deal that would've seen Universal merge with Electronic Arts?

Report: EA Almost Merged With NBC Universal Before Deal With Comcast Dissolved

Puck News reports the merger fell apart last month.

www.gameinformer.com

The Disney/Fox deal has worked out quite well for Disney. Their share of global box office receipts is huge and Disney+ (or, here in the US, Disney+ and Hulu) has gotten way out ahead of all other streamers except Netflix and Prime Video. No one is betting against Disney long-term.

And yes, WB is in a bad place right now. Although I'm a bit skeptical about that article claiming they can only afford to release two more movies this year. We'll see. Looks like they only had three more on the release schedule for the US: Don't Worry Darling, Black Adam, and House Party, the last of which was originally going to be a Max Original but was recently announced as a theatrical release, which belies the article's claim about WB not being able to afford more than 2 more theatrical films this year. (And in addition, they'll be handling the UK releases of The Lost King and Emily, plus the international release of Bones & All.)

But all that said, I would agree that the future of Warner Bros. is very much up in the air. Shame to see what's happened to such a venerable old Hollywood studio.

 

[Juan]

Here's former Disney CEO Bob Iger saying the same thing I did earlier this week: not all current streaming services will survive, although Netflix, Prime Video, Apple TV+ and Disney+ are safe. It's all the others -- HBO Max/Discovery, Paramount+, Peacock, etc. -- that are in danger.

Bob Iger Says Not All Subscription Streaming Video Services Will Survive - Media Play News

In global media landscape gone streaming, survival of the fittest among subscription video platforms is an ongoing battle spearheaded by four likely winners: Netflix, Disney+, Prime Video — and Apple TV+? That’s the mindset of Bob Iger, recently retired former Disney CEO and executive chairman...

www.mediaplaynews.com

They don't know..some how some way another streaming service will popup and tip over his apple cart..netflix is in decline but will know how badly by the end of the year...apple is just a blip on the radar as a streaming service..primevideo is basically VOD..its no surprise he thinks disney will rule everything