No news services are reporting this. Only you. If you are correct…TPG deserves to lose their $2.5 billion. But I am going to need proof that TPG would be that stupid.
Deal is dead... ?
- Thread starter Scott Greczkowski
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THINK!
Do you REALLY think they are THAT stupid?
Not likely. More to the story coming
Do you REALLY think they are THAT stupid?
Not likely. More to the story coming
A useful simplified explanation. Funny; the first communications satellite, Echo I, WAS a passive reflector.A satellite is basically a big mirror mirror that bounces radio waves off of it that are being sent to it. (Of course there is more to it, but I said it in simplest form)
This is what my contacts have been telling me all along. Haven't found a reason to doubt them yet.
Business as usual and now DISH sits in a very good place.
- Nov 29, 2003
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Again, if true, a astounding bad decision on TPG part, that is why it is so hard to believe.
TPG Capital trades on the NASDAQ, they have shareholders (investors) plus a Board of Directors to answer to, if they really lost $2.5B to a company that was close to Bankruptcy, there will be firings, massive firings.
TPG Capital has a market cap of $24.05 Billion, so losing $2 Billion is a big deal for a equity fund of that size.
Again, until Echostar can prove they can monetize the spectrum, they are not in a good place, losing 3 Million out of 10M Cell Phone Subscribers in just 4 Years, after multiple marketing attempts, is not a good sign.
Along with the decreasing revenue from their TV Service and Satellite Internet.
They have massive hurdles.
But it is worse for DirecTV, based on the math.
As I said many… many times.
I see Dish buying Directv.
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I see Dish buying Directv.
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How can Dish buy DirecTV when they are going bankrupt?
Charlie is going to a gambling casino with TPG $2.5 billion and he will risk it all on the craps table . Then he will double his money and come out ahead.
- Nov 29, 2003
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Based on when debt is due for Echostar, they will hold on a lot longer then DirecTV.
Based on the subscribers numbers published at Fitch Ratings, they (DirecTV) have been losing 2 Million a year the last 3 years, if that number stays the same, will have 9 Million the end of 2024 (which could be worse due to the DirecTV/Disney dispute).
So, by the end of 2026, DirecTV will have 5 Million Subs and be unprofitable at that point.
The new revaluation of DirecTV will be so low at that point, Dish should be able to pick it off of a extremely low fee.
If you disagree, give me one example that shows DirecTV is planning on staying on for the long term, new equipment, nope, new satellites nope, new ventures into other businesses, nope.
I have to ask...does this really seems feasible that TPG would just piss away more than $2 billion dollars? All of the articles available state that DISH received "financing" agreements in September. Financing is not free in the financial world. Financing is a loan.
From the Washington Post today:
The debt exchange was not successful...at least so far.
Also from that same article:
- Nov 29, 2003
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By Nov. 22, should have more answers.
And I am agreement with you, makes no sense they would just give away $2 Billion, TPG is a big equity firm, but not that big.
As far as Echostar being insolvent as reported by Moffett, I have read Echostar received $5B in new funding, I have no idea if that was related to the merger, but that and the $2B takes care of the debt for 2024 and 2025.
But they will still need more cash to continue the build out and the expansion plans they laid out to the FCC, as conditions for changing the deadline, but since they are losing money every quarter, maybe that is what he is referring to.
Yes but that new funding is just adding more debt. Kicking the can down the road. They are in this predicament because of debt. Their solution seems to be "lets add some more debt".
- Nov 29, 2003
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It will bit them in the end if they cannot turn things around, but still safe for a couple of years.
The TPG deal is no different than many other proposed acquisitions that (might) fail to complete for various reasons.
You can go back and watch deal after failed deal where millions to billions are put up as a commitment to buy with a provision the money is lost if the deal does not go through .
EchoStar did well , reduced their near term (through 2025) debt payments to 139 million, got a bunch of cash by rolling their bonds by adding their previously unpledged AWS-3 and AWS-4 spectrum assets to the secured bonds being rolled over.
The problem they will now face is they have basically pledged all their valuable assets for the secured loans.
So, the next time they run out of cash (no matter if the DIRECTV deal goes through or not), the bondholders will have to decide whether to extend terms or fight for many years over who gets the table scraps.
You can go back and watch deal after failed deal where millions to billions are put up as a commitment to buy with a provision the money is lost if the deal does not go through .
EchoStar did well , reduced their near term (through 2025) debt payments to 139 million, got a bunch of cash by rolling their bonds by adding their previously unpledged AWS-3 and AWS-4 spectrum assets to the secured bonds being rolled over.
The problem they will now face is they have basically pledged all their valuable assets for the secured loans.
So, the next time they run out of cash (no matter if the DIRECTV deal goes through or not), the bondholders will have to decide whether to extend terms or fight for many years over who gets the table scraps.
I thought I read that $5 billion was based on their own bandwidth they own. They used it as collateral to secure additional financing. Even though I don't think they can even touch it to sell if they wanted to till 2026.
Rearranging the chairs on the deck of the Titanic as the ship sinks after hitting the iceberg. All while the band keeps on playing.
i feel like this failure to merge maybe a test to see if the Dish or DirecTV assets are valuable enough for a major cable provider to buy out instead, i get the feeling that Dish or DirecTV may now end up being bought out by either Charter Communications/Spectrum or Comcast/Xfinity to try to extend their reach to rural areas without using fiber optics cables or traditional copper cables and turn the dishes into something to beam internet signals to offer TV streaming services with.
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I can just about guarantee that if Dish were spun off and went into bankruptcy, the federal bankruptcy judge would beat up on the bondholders.
First thing the judge would say is those millions of subscribers are not going to lose their service
Next he/she would say EchoStar valued the business at $0.
Then he/she would decide how much pain the bondholders would have to experience to reorganize the business with a debt load it could support.
EchoStar would be out of it but they already have decided to get out of the business so no skin off their nose.
First thing the judge would say is those millions of subscribers are not going to lose their service
Next he/she would say EchoStar valued the business at $0.
Then he/she would decide how much pain the bondholders would have to experience to reorganize the business with a debt load it could support.
EchoStar would be out of it but they already have decided to get out of the business so no skin off their nose.
