Could Someone Please Explain How & Why Dish/Echo Is In Its Present Situation?

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FCom911 said:
That's not what I'm trying to say... The SAT fleet is the backbone of their operations. I'm just deeply surprised by the misfortune at Dish's feet, and it could be just a string of bad luck, but Eastern Arch, 129, 148... that's just an awful lot bad luck hitting all at once. But, couldn't some of this been avoided by being more pro-active with the fleet?
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Seems to me they have been proactive, but blowups at ILS and Sea Launch delayed all launches, and one satellite didn't make it into a useful orbit. There are two more launches on deck in the near future, E-14 and Ciel-2, and at some point the replacement for AMC-14 will go up. And I just noticed an E-15 planned for launch in 2010. Scroll to the bottom of the link and click on Echostar-15.

Gunter's Space Page - Information on Launch vehicles, Satellites, Space Shuttle and Astronautics

The sky isn't falling on Dish, Chicken Little. :)
 
mdonnelly said:
Seems to me they have been proactive, but blowups at ILS and Sea Launch delayed all launches, and one satellite didn't make it into a useful orbit. There are two more launches on deck in the near future, E-14 and Ciel-2, and at some point the replacement for AMC-14 will go up. And I just noticed an E-15 planned for launch in 2010. Scroll to the bottom of the link and click on Echostar-15.

Gunter's Space Page - Information on Launch vehicles, Satellites, Space Shuttle and Astronautics

The sky isn't falling on Dish, Chicken Little. :)
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I don't seem them on the edge myself either. I do see DirecTV having an advantage with the KA bandwidth with the birds they yanked from the Spaceway project though. Very smooooth move. Not meaning that in a negative way either.

Think about what would happen if D10 blew up today.
 
digiblur said:
Think about what would happen if D10 blew up today.
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An interruption in service for maybe a week until D11 can take it's place. (I'm assuming that pre-D11 launch the DirecTV contingency plan for a D10 failure would be to utilize the techniques Echostar has already done, such has eliminating mpeg2 HD and use 8PSK modulation, increased symbol rates, MPEG4 encoding, etc on their Ku sats)

Think of what would happen if E5 or E12 failed? Dish Network would basically lose HD service to half the country for months and would probably have to undergo a radical reorganization plan.

That's a major, major difference in what's at stake.

Echostar is operating their hardware on the razor's edge, while DirecTV has always been (at times puzzlingly) conservative.
 
One thing really did worry me when I watched the E11 launch. Dish's space programs guy Rohan essentially said that the have approached SS/L without really knowing what they want. I had to say in my mind, wait a minute, Dish really goes to buy a satellite for tens of millions of dollars besides launch costs without a real plan for what they want it to do? Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but its almost like Dish does not have a comprehensive plan for replacing satellites and adding satellites at new locations and/or bands to increase bandwidth. On the other hand, it seems like several years ago, Directv sat down and but together a plan to increase their available bandwidth, which we now see falling into place with D10 and D11, along with D7S, D8, and D9S ensuring their core slots were covered by newer satellites. Dish has done OK, but Directv has done better.
 
HDRoberts said:
One thing really did worry me when I watched the E11 launch. Dish's space programs guy Rohan essentially said that the have approached SS/L without really knowing what they want. I had to say in my mind, wait a minute, Dish really goes to buy a satellite for tens of millions of dollars besides launch costs without a real plan for what they want it to do? Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but its almost like Dish does not have a comprehensive plan for replacing satellites and adding satellites at new locations and/or bands to increase bandwidth...
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That's what I'm thinkin'...

FCom911 said:
I understand, Echostar is global and massive, but all I can say, if I were at the helm, and I'm not, I wouldn't be pushing things so far, unless I was really strapped for cash...

Who do you really think is behind all of this? Is Charlie the only one who makes decisions...? Is he a micro-manager? Does the board have any input...?

All I see - no backup, none... and it just doesn't make any sense. There's too much on the line, here.
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Dish has had bad luck with some satellites:

E3 was never able to operate in double power mode, it would overheat, suffered a bunch of TP failures and is now dark on 4 frequencies

E4 never worked to start with

E5 had early failure of the momentum wheels (and the backups), they are working around them as best they can

Then of course AMC-14 did not make it to orbit.

They can only build and launch them so fast. Considering Dish does not build or launch them, they have little control over this process.

DIRECTV has had a few satellite failures too. The conversion of the spaceway satellites really saved them from a lot of trouble and put them ahead of Dish for the moment in capacity.
 
It does "seem" especially if you watch the Charlie Chats, that E* is still run like a startup company like the one I used to work for, run on a shoestring budget with production enterprise servers built out of old workstation parts that were lying around, until there were enough paying customers to afford to buy real servers.

By the way, I still work for that company, but unlike E*'s "perception" with growth we improved the way things operate.

Again, this is just the way things appear to me, it very well could be a professionally run operation disguised as a two-bit one.
 
Isn't this all about the number/quality of Dish's sat assets and transponder licenses at key orbital positions in the center of the US (e.g. 110/19) ? and how this forces Dish to need twice as many transponders to mirror all the HD channels, etc. at 129 and 61.5?

AFAIK implementing both an eastern and western arc was Dish's attempt to turn this "sows ear" into a "silk purse" due to improved LOS options and a single smaller dish than D* requires. BUT implementing both arcs also requires more sats assets than Dish currently has due to the failure of AMC-14 to reach orbit 9at 61.5) and the death of E-2 (at 148) (:

Talon Dancer
 
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Must be Charlie has to keep running things on a shoestring budget as someone mentioned so they can continue to pay all the legal fees they have built up the last few years.

Oh wait they sue other companies so the customer does not end up paying more ..... right????
:)
 
FCom911 said:
I understand the timeline...

Has DirecTV experienced difficult times such as Dish's, at present?
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No, but they haven't had any significant failures on launch in quite a while. This is a technology business and for (I think) 3 years Dish was ahead of Direct, now it looks like Direct will be ahead of Dish for a significant period.

Every tech business has this type of leapfrogging; it's what comes of competition.

BTW, does IMO imply I'm being some sort of jerk? I'm really seeking some logic, not just trying to chew the fat. If 129 does go, I'll have to go.
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The failed launch (AMC-14) was supposed to replace one orbital location, moving a somewhat older satellite to be part of the Eastern Arc.

Next, on the eve of a launch, another (very old) satellite in the fleet appears to have experienced a catastrophic failure.

So how did Dish get here? Two significant events out of their control.

It is never the opinion, it is always a matter of how one's opinion is presented.
 
FCom911 said:
So, is there a traffic jam, of sorts. Reliability issues as far as launch vehicles?
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Google Proton Briz M

You will see that it has been less than reliable.

You will also see that D* lucked out on their last launch.

Sealaunch blew up on the mission right before the last D* launch.

They got that problem fixed. Got the D* payload up.

The next mission was AMC14 to goto 61.5 for E*

We all know what happened to that bird.

What is scary is that Ceil-2 is being launched Q1 of 2009 on a Briz-M.

For a list of Sat failures look here http://www.sat-index.co.uk/failures/
 
Echostar has a brand new satellite with massive capacity (XI) just up. They lost a 12 year old satellite, and AMC 14 which was insured. Ciel2 will go up in the first quarter of 09, and E-14 and E-15 are in production as we speak. Legal issues are under control. 14 million plus subscribers, with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues each month. Charlie Ergen isn't that dumb. But for the FCC (or was it the FTC?) he would now be running E* and D* both. 2 bit and dumb? I don't think so.
 
And He is a billionaire. DeFranco probably is as well. We did business with this small C band distribution company before there was a "little dish". He is not stupid, and is perhaps one of America's more successful entrepreneur stories. As far as D* goes, I was in the retail satellite business when they launched their service as well, and they had their share of problems. I can remember watching a football game and when a punt was kicked, the ball would all but disappear from all the compression. That was why I kept service on C band for so long and still have that dish. Both companies have come a long way, and with out them and only cable? Ah NO!
 
Some of their problems are from bad luck but like others have said these things do occur between companies every few years. The full complete future of Dish IMO isn't limited from money and sats but from those hard to get licenses to broadcast from specific orbital locations.

Right now I believe DirecTV has a major advantage on that front and you can only do so much to create extra bandwidth on your existing licenses until you need to get new ones. The problem again is that getting new orbital broadcasting licenses from the FCC just isn't easy at all and almost never happens.

I however don't see the massive amounts of bandwidth intensive content that having those extra licenses would really benefit from and thus Dish can still offer more than enough channels to stay in the game with ease. They just might need to be a bit more selective on the specific HD channels they add while DirecTV can add anything and everything. The question is if Dish were cheaper on hardware and programming will all of those extra HD channels DirecTV has be a reason a customer wouldn't switch to Dish. My belief is that this will have very little impact at all.

Also remember that as long as most of cable still has a small HD lineup Dish can steal those customers with cheaper pricing over DirecTV and I believe it will get easier and easier as time goes on.

I guess the short term might not be that good but not bad either while the long term gains will be more moderate but nothing that would spur any panic on anyone's part.
 

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