Doubtful over time.
If ESPN (or any channel) had to manage both ends of the spectrum (i.e. the number of subs and paying for the content) then contract pricing would adjust. There is no way ESPN or any network can pay high inflated costs if customers can opt out of paying it. These deals only work if the costs can be successfully spread across 100M customers AND each of those customers is forced to buy in.
Studies show a certain number of ESPN customers would opt out if they had a choice. Let's just say 33% would opt out? Under many of the shortsighted thinking, costs would go up across the remaining subscribers. That's unlikely. What is more likely is that ESPN pares back it contract and covers less games and pays less for the games. No way ESPN is going to gamble and overpay NBA on subs it does not have and cannot guarantee. Overall it means less games on television because no one is able to pay for them at the rates that they want. So back to local TV and broadcast TV.
But should this happen it would have a ripple effect....NBA revenue would decrease....thus player contracts would have to decrease.
You guys have to look at the economic model and how any change would shake out. It is quite complex, but for each customer than can opt out, that means less overall ability to spread the cost, less overall ability to spread the cost means raising rates. For every rate increase that will lose an additional x number of subs.....so those costs have to be repread.
In reality, the cost model needs to be updated......ordinary consumers can no longer afford all of this.
I agree. Sports channels like Espn will be the death of the current sat/cable model we have used for the last 40 years. They are simply to high and they force everyone to sub to a pack with Espn in them - except the Welcome pack. Millennials have never subbed to cable or satellite and the yearly price hikes are forcing more and more of the current subs to shave the cord or cut it entirely. Of course the core group of older subs to cable and satellite are literally dieing out day by day each year. This leaves the current model in jeopardy and losing more and more subs at the same time, as they hike the price more and more, to make up for the lost revenue. Something has to give or the whole model will collapse. If this happens all the companies, DISH ,DIRECTV,Cable companies , including the content providers themselves, will have to do something like ala cart to attract anyone to their service. The average customer can't afford these prices much longer.