NONE of the big MSOs (multiple system operators) left will cave. It's too much money and it's going to set a precedent. If they give $1.10 a month per subscriber on an extended basic tier to BTN, What are they going to have to pay for SEC-TV? or ACC TV?
The cost of BTN is going to be the starting point for some of those. SEC is going to cost what BTN does, plus a 30% to 50% premium, because those fans in the south east really are nuts. if BTN is $1.10, then SEC will be closer to $1.75.
Maybe a premium per subscriber, but they would make considerably less overall if both got into basic tiers in their regions--Big Ten population is much greater than the South's.
The cost of Big 12 tv, ACC and Big East TV will likely be somewhat lower than BTN. I would guess Pac 10 would be about the same.
So for the Big MSOs, this is a HUGE issue.
They figure that they have already lost the really big sports fanatics to D*, that anyone who would leave for BTN already left for Sunday Ticket. How many more subs are they going to lose for the BTN? Not many.
How many people have left Dish over Extra Innings? Too few to matter judging by the financials.
Have to recognize that EI appeals mainly to people who now live outside of where their hometown/favorite team plays. Most baseball fans get their hometown/favorite teams via RSNs. Big Ten fans will miss games of their 'favorite' teams. Comparing apples to oranges.
I am a Big Ten alum who played back in the day. I like college sports. I am a college sports official. Three of my partners and four of my associates are Big Ten alums. Two have season football/baseketball tickets. None of them are switching. None are particularly concerned. All have Comcast. I have Dish. One is considering switching if Comcast does not pick up TBS HD because they have the Baseball playoffs.
My point: Comcast and TimeWarner are holding all the cards on this one. If I were in their position (and I negotiate contracts as part of my job), I would not even be returning the BTN's calls until they cut the price by AT LEAST 30%.
I would agree with this statement. Comcast, in particular, seems fully willing to play hardball with sports programmers (see what they did to the almighty NFL recently with the NFL network). But BTN has indicated for awhile that they are willing to negotiate on price, so I think they won't get 1.10 from anyone else who signs. But obviously the big sticking point is placement in the 'required' tier. I don't think they will give on that this year, and I don't think the other MSO's will give this year either.
Dish may pick up the channel in the interim as long as their contract contains most-favored-nation language. Then it will have the best of both worlds: It would have the channel before cable, but benefit from whatever concessions cable can extract.
By the way, last I heard BTN was not even going to be on every Campus Cable system at launch.