Two titles that HD-DVD will have that only one of them is worth having - Transformers. I can wait, it will be on BD eventually -- in 17 months is my guess. I will not dispute that 40% is not bad. But it is not 60% now is it? And there is no way that HD-DVD alone can make-up for that loss in revenue without the 150 mil payment to Paramount. They just do not have enough players in the homes (standalones and 360 players included) to make up that much of a differance.
You will not be seeing Cars, Spiderman 3, not ever going to see Casino Royal, or the many other box office hits from this year on HD-DVD. So I think I can do without Transformers for awhile. As for Shrek -- badly down sequel -- you will not be seeing another one. I would much rather have something from Pixar or Disney. And there is plenty coming down the pike for XMAS from them.
Shrek 4 and 5 as well as a Puss spin off are already in pre-production. Transformers 2 is also being released. As for as Cars I wouldn't write that in stone yet as some of BVHE's blu-ray discs have been released internationally on HD-DVD as has Underworld and a lot more.
Xploited Cinema
Also at the 40/60 divide. You're talking about dollars in comparison to the total dvd sales of a major release so I don't think a company like Paramount will feel the effects (especially with the $150m) for at least a couple years. Same goes for the reverse with Fox's payout.
(and just to be equal there are some HD's available on BR overseas)