After consulting with a friend who works in one of Verizon's test lab, he says: "we plan on having to replace residential fiber lines every 50 years, but expect them to last much longer in practice. Long distance fiber lines are designed to last even longer. It doesn't mean some cables won't fail before that. There is a statistical distribution just like anything, but the MTBF is looking favorable compared to manufacturer specs so far."
Obviously, fiber cuts would potentially result in a lower life expectancy. Either way, fiber is worth it, especially considering ISPs probably make their money back on the capital investment way before they will have to run new lines due to failures. The only reason it isn't more widespread is previously recalcitrant telcos not wanting the short term earnings hit related to the capital investment. Given AT&T's latest statements, I think they are finally seeing the light, even if they still only want to expand into highly profitable markets. In NC, power co-ops and rural counties are putting in rural fiber and leasing access to ISPs, and it is working great. This is a model that I think would work well in a lot of places.