From
Sky Report
"The TiVo-DISH showdown is looking grim for DISH as Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett notes that the No. 2 DBS provider is "now negotiating with the proverbial gun to the head." (Moffett wins our personal vote for most colorful writing by an analyst.) Anyway ... Thanks to its losses in court, DISH is now faced with three options: (1) Shutting down its estimated 7mm to 8mm DVRs (a sure-fire disaster); (2) Replacing those DVRs with non-infringing units (at a cost in the billions plus huge disruptions); or (3) paying the piper (AKA TiVo) pretty much whatever it wants.
As Moffett notes, historical precedents peg DVR licensing fees at
$1.00 to $2.25 per month. But, he adds, since DISH now represents the largest untapped pool for TiVo, and with those court judgments in hand, TiVo could push the price far higher. Moffett sees the $2.25/month as the floor for a settlement with a ceiling somewhere in the billions (Moffett's emphasis).
Moffett's revised model for DISH reflects a
$3/month DVR licensing fee starting 3Q10."