I am always reminded of a conversation in "Contact" when one of the people in a top-level meeting was talking about possible invasion if they built the machine in the plans sent by the message:
"Why that's rediculous! That would be like us going over to Africa to kick over an ant hill!"
"...And how would you feel if we went over to Africa to kick over an ant hill?"
IOW, we think nothing of killing thousands of ants.
Do I believe that there is other life in the universe? You betcha!
The chain of events that led to the creation of life on Earth is NOT that miraculous. It is a combination of very common elements that ALWAYS react the same way under the same conditions. Whether happenstance or the way God wanted it is not the issue. The genesis of ameno acids and other basic blocks of life and the eventual combination into animate material is not in question. It is an unbeleivably simple reaction of elements that are abundant in all parts of the observable universe. Given Billions of years, a time span that is inconceivably long to most, genesis will happen in the "Goldielocks Zone" every time. (Area where temperatures are neither too hot or too cold for the proper reactions). The question is: How many goldielocks zones are there and how many different combinations are possible?
Is the other
intelligent life? That is more difficult. This is where we need to take into account many other variables. This is from memory and may be a little off, but IIRC the equation is as follows:
Intelligent civilizations with the ability to travel the stars
is equal to
The number of stars that have a suitable lifespan to have allowed evolution to occur 3b+ years
times
The fraction of those stars that have a planetary system
times
The fraction of the stars with planets that have "earth-like" qualities, most importantly, liquid water.
times
The fraction of those planets where life actually developes
times
The fraction of those planets where intelligence developes (remember the Earth had life for over 3 billion years before intelligence as we define it developed) There is another equation for this variable
times
The fraction of the intelligent creatures that develop technology
times
The fraction of these civilizations that survive long enough to develop the advanced technology for space travel and have the political and economic ability to persue it. We humans have had the ability to explore (not with probes, but with manned missions) other planets in our own solar system, but political and economic pressures have kept us essentially grounded for over 34 years! Imagine the cost of interstellar technology! It is available now in its most basic forms, but it is cost-prohibitive.
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Do I believe that we have been visited by extra terrestrial intelligence?
Take into account all the variables above and then figure in the unbeleivable vastless of our universe and figure out how plausible it is that another intelligent life-form would be near enough to even care to come to Earth. Even if the numbers above work to be in the billions or even hundreds of billions of other intelligent life forms flying around and it is just like Star Trek, the chances are amazingly slim.
This is even taking into account the RF beacon we are casting out into space. The Earth has been undetectable until the last 75-100 years. There is nothing about this planet that would attract any attention otherwise. It is like trying to see a gnat next to one of millions and millions of bon fires along all the coast lines and recognizing that one gnat as "special". IOW, bloody unlikely that it would happen by chance!
We started broadcasting into space at the speed of light (quite unintetionally) Our signals have really only gone 75-100 light years at best. Some one within that sphere would have to be listening, be able to interpret the signal for what it is and respond. Since the first "real" aien sigting was in 1947 that means that the aliens would have had to be within 10-20 light years. (never mind that alien visits have been part of folklore since antiquety--see "Charriot of the Gods"
) Considering that the Milky Way (our galaxy) is about 300,000 light years accross, that is even more unlikely.
But now that makes us a firefly next to one of billions of bon fires.
What is arrogant is for anyone to think that we, as a civilization are interesting enough for an alien civilization to care unless you subscribe to the "Chia Pet" theory.
See ya
Tony