vurbano,
You're right that would be cost prohibitive for them.
Reviewing the directv news pdf posted in another topic, it looks like they're projecting 50+% take up of HD/DVR by year '08.
Interestingly, in an off topic sort of way, they're also projecting around a 3 percent annual price hike.
On a quick review of the document, and while I agree with you in general, I do think they will be pushing subscription upgrades via HD and DVR receivers simply because the revenue margin is greater for subs with those services than those without.
I believe I read that a small percentage of subs generate over 30, around 33 percent, if I recall correctly, of their revenue.
That gives those small number of subs an incredible amount of leverage. They start downgrading their subs, or cancelling en mass and D looses a substantial portion of their revenue. One third is nothing to sneeze at.
Looking at their current level of revenue, year on year hardware outlay, and their HD take-up projections, I'd say D is going to keep the up front "lease privilege fee" on HD equipment and DVRs if it has any hope of making the inroads it's projecting by '08.
I hate to say it but looking at their numbers, and their customer’s understandable reticence to pay such large up front cost for the privilege of leasing and returning the equipment, unless they change something they're very likely not to meet their projections.
They're being overly optimistic I think. In fact I’d call their take-up projections closer to fantasy than realistic.
They're adding somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.2 - 1.7 million new subscribers so I'm guessing offering deep discounts on initial account creation "leasing privilege fees" isn't going to be enough to get them to the 50+% mark by 08. Personally I think they'll be lucky to get a fraction of new accounts to sign up for HD or DVR equipment with the steep upfront cost involved.