25 Years of the NBA Draft Lottery

SabresRule

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Apr 15, 2008
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Tomorrow night, before game 2 of the Orlando/Boston series, the NBA will hold its Silver Anniversary Draft Lottery- #25.

For a quarter of a century, the simple premise of pulling ping-pong balls out of a tumbler has had a tremendous impact on NBA history.

1985- Sandra's Knicks won the lottery and the right to select Patrick Ewing. However, to this day, I still hear about the so-called 'Frozen Envelope.'

1992- Orlando won the right to draft the Shaq Diesel, who put them on the NBA map.

1997- Boston was the favorite to get Tim Duncan. We all know how that went.

2003- In light of all the recent LeBron news, one can't help but go back to when the Cavs won the right to choose him initially.

2007- One of the rare instances where not winning the lottery ended up being a good thing. Boston didn't get Oden/Durant, though had it happened, they definitely don't get Allen/Garnett. Maybe the C's don't get banner #17 had the ping-pong ball bounced differently.

2008- Chicago beat the odds to draft Derrick Rose.

Looking back, it's amazing how NBA franchise fortunes can shift thanks to a couple of ping pong balls.
 
1997- Boston was the favorite to get Tim Duncan. We all know how that went....
As I recall, the Celtics had the first and fourth slots in the draw, which added up to 38%, but their odds of getting the number one pick were closer to 50% because there was an expansion team in that lottery that was precluded from winning the #1 spot.

The Celts had only slightly below average luck in winding up 3rd, where they took Chauncy Billups after Keith Van Horn was taken second. If the draft were held again today, with everyone knowing what Van Horn and Billups had for careers, Billups might go second instead of third.

Rick Pitino has often said that if he knew he wasn't going to get the number one pick, he would never taken the job as Celtics coach. But if the odds of you getting the number 1 pick are about 50%, then the odds of you NOT getting it are also about 50%. Pitino is numb if he doesn't understand that.
 
Wizard's "win". This could be the best thing to happen to that franchise since they got to draft Kwame Brown in 2001.

I'm not a "Walls" man. The Wizards could wind up with Gilbert Arenas "A" and Gilbert Arenas "B".
 
Just shows the Wolfies are cursed...they fell 2 spots in the lottery.....this is pretty funny

The Wolfies put a full page ad in yesterday's Mpls Star Tribune trying to get fans enthused about the Wolves. Checking records the Wolves have NEVER moved up in the draft and more often moved down...so in the full page ad the one line is the best

"Thats right. The basketball gods decided to kick us in the teeth again" :eek:
 

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Because of the nature of the lottery, typically about three times as many teams move down as up. For example, if one team jumps from eigth to third, then five teams move down one slot
 
Because of the nature of the lottery, typically about three times as many teams move down as up. For example, if one team jumps from eigth to third, then five teams move down one slot

Exactly. Since two teams moved up, a number of teams moved down two slots.


Sandra
 
I really have never liked the way the NBA does thier draft lottery. I think it should be like all the other sports and the team with the worst record should get the first pick.
 
I really have never liked the way the NBA does thier draft lottery. I think it should be like all the other sports and the team with the worst record should get the first pick.

As I recall, two teams with near identical records each tried to make sure they lost their last few games one year, which precipitated it.
 
THE DRAFT THAT CHANGED IT ALL. Tanks to '84, the lottery was born

NY Daily News, Sunday, May 22th, 2005

Back in 1985, the simpler, seven-team lottery was still much less controversial than its predecessor: the reverse-order draft, featuring a coin flip between the teams with the worst and second-worst records to decide the No. 1 pick. Those coin flips had decided that Lew Alcindor would go to Milwaukee, that Magic Johnson would go to the Lakers.

The coin flips were heart-wrenching - just ask Rod Thorn in Chicago, who got stuck with David Greenwood instead of Magic - but NBA historians know it was the outrageous mischief leading up to the defining 1984 draft that led to the formation of the lottery in the first place.

For at least a year, the Olajuwon Draft, as it was commonly called, had been greatly hyped and viewed with uncommon anticipation. This was a special class, and a different era. Impact players were already honed by college competition, and the pool of eligible juniors and seniors in June of 1984 was ocean deep with talent. The face of the NBA was about to be changed forever by the talents and personalities of Olajuwon, Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley and John Stockton.

Everybody wanted the No. 1 pick and Olajuwon, envisioning an instant change in fortune for his franchise. If not, then some other top slot would ensure a pick of significant sway. So a frantic, reverse race played out down the final stretch of the season. Teams lost games in bunches with depleted rosters, so they could climb the draft ladder.

As the 1983-84 season wound down, as draft positions were solidified, the Rockets and Bulls owned their own picks and kept hemorrhaging games to their own advantage. Meanwhile, the Blazers, Mavericks and 76ers had acquired their picks in trades from Indiana, Cleveland and the Los Angeles Clippers. They were interested observers, dependent on the records of teams that were excluded from these sweepstakes, and therefore lacking strong incentive to lose.

Slowly, all five teams in this pathetic grouping slid into one lousy lump at the bottom of the standings. Houston dropped 14 of its last 17. Chicago lost 14 of its last 15, including its final five. Indiana dropped seven of its last eight, Cleveland nine of its last 11, the Clippers five of their last seven.

"There was a lot of reason for concern, for suspicion," says Jack Ramsay, the former Portland coach and now a TV analyst.

Dick Motta, then coach of the Mavericks, screamed that his rivals in nearby Houston were dumping games, just to get Olajuwon. Lineups and box scores were scoured for signs of Machiavellian conspiracies.

"We were playing so bad, I think we lost two intrasquad games that year," says Bill Fitch, then coach of the Rockets, now retired in Texas. "But Dick Motta was a crybaby. He apologized to me later a bit for saying those things, though not much. I don't know what got into him. I think it was that I played Elvin Hayes (who was 38 at the time) a lot of minutes one night. Elvin had played for Dick, and Dick just didn't like him a bit. But Elvin had the best year he'd ever had for me."

The Mavs owned Cleveland's pick, and wanted the Cavs to finish as low as possible. But since Cleveland had no pick, there was no incentive to lose. The Cavs won their last game at Washington, a crushing defeat for Motta's chances to draft Jordan.

"Weird things were happening," says Pat Williams, then general manager of the Philadelphia 76ers, who owned the rights to the Clippers' pick. "A lot of funny stuff going on, leaving a dark mark on the integrity of the game."



...down the stretch, Chicago was definitely snatching key defeats from potentially disastrous victories. The Bulls were on a six-game losing streak when they hit New York to begin an early April home-and-home set, in a virtual tie with Cleveland in that race to finish lower and get a higher pick.

When the Bulls arrived at Madison Square Garden on this convenient slide, the famous New York arena was practically empty. Orlando Woolridge, one of the team's top players and arguably the only reason to watch the Bulls, was sitting out with an injury, raising more eyebrows around the league.

The Knicks were having a solid season (they finished at 47-35), and were jockeying for playoff position. This figured to be a blowout for the home side, a game that most New York fans decided was eminently miss-able. Somehow, a hard-fought contest broke out. Troubled Quintin Dailey was ridiculously hot, scoring 44 points on 17-of-26 shooting. Here was a potential upset that might gravely wound Chicago's draft position, and a shot at Jordan.

In the final seconds, however, the Bulls' Steve Johnson was called for goaltending on a shot by Marvin Webster. Webster's shots rarely went in of their own accord, rendering this goaltending violation particularly noteworthy. It would be a great stretch, however, to claim conspiracy. Johnson was not nearly coordinated enough to plan and carry out such a violation at a moment's notice.

The Knicks won by that single basket, 115-113. The Bulls then went back home and rolled over in the rematch, 113-96. Chicago would finish at 27-55, one game behind Cleveland, sneaking into that No. 3 draft spot, behind Portland and ahead of the Mavericks. The Bulls wouldn't get Olajuwon. There was no sense in scouting him. Instead, Thorn had to wait to see what Houston and Portland would do ahead of him.

First there was the coin flip in Stern's office to determine the No. 1 pick. The Blazers called tails, the coin turned up heads. Houston got its local college hero, Olajuwon. The Blazers, picking second, made the biggest mistake in NBA history, drafting Sam Bowie to fill their gaping vacancy at center.

Thorn grabbed Jordan at No. 3. Not a bad move. The Mavericks drafted Sam Perkins, the Sixers took Charles Barkley at No. 5 and Stockton slipped all the way down to Utah at the No. 15 spot.

Despite such a bumper crop of superstars, arguably the greatest draft ever, the NBA's image had suffered a severe blow that spring from all the suspicious losing. Stern was just starting out as league commissioner, hoping to market the sport internationally. The league was so concerned about the perceived chicanery, by what appeared to be the purposeful tanking of games for better positioning, that its Board of Governors instituted a lottery system weeks after the 1984 draft to assure such nonsense would never happen again.

The reformed system offered seven non-playoff teams an equal chance at the top pick, regardless of their records, in the form of a televised lottery. Ewing would be the first prize...
 
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