Why HD DVD has the edge in the format war

[Hoopnoop]

As an HD DVD owner, I have found myself at times questioning the long-term viability of this platform. After all, Blue Ray has more studios on board, has all of those PS3s, and appears to have stronger retail support. So, how can HD DVD survive and perhaps even win this format war?

It is interesting to see the debates in this and other A/V type forums because everyone is emphasizing what is important to them as videophiles. But videophiles will not determine the winner of the format war -- Joe and Jane consumer will. And here is a list of things that are not that important to Joe and Jane:

1. The HD DVD and Blue Ray release schedule - The important thing to remember here is that HD DVD and Blue Ray are backwards compatible. So, you can watch any dvd you want with either format. An HD DVD buyer can watch an SD version of Casino Royale and a Blue Ray buyer can watch an SD version of the Departed. This matters to us videophiles but is not nearly as important to Joe and Jane. My wife is a good example. She can't tell much of a difference between HD DVD and SD DVD -- both look really good to her. So, as long as both formats have a decent number of high def releases, both are pretty much comparable to the typical consumer.
2. PS3 versus Xbox 360s - Certainly this is important early on in the format war but in the long-run what is important is the mass market for high def DVD players. And once there is a mass market for stand alone high def players, the PS3s and XBox360s will not be needed for playing high def DVDs.
3. Studio and retail supoort - This certainly matters to the typical consumer but studios and retailers will quickly jump on the bandwagon of whatever is selling. Their support can be rather fickle.

So, what matters to the typical consumer? Two things: (1) value and (2) ease of use. Basically, the typical consumer wants a high def player that is under $200 and works like their current dvd player. My wife can't stand the HD-A1 because it is so quirky especially when it comes to playing rented HD DVDs. But the HD-A2 is much more user-friendly.

The point is that what is vital in the format war in the long-term is the ability to provide a value-priced high def player that is easy to use. And this is what gives HD DVD the advantage -- its cost and price advantage is vital. Within 1 to 2 years (and perhaps sooner), there will be HD DVD players that are at or around $200 and that work about as well as current DVD players. At that point, the mass market will start diving in and the studios and retailers will follow. This, IMHO, gives HD DVD a clear edge in the format war.

 

[teamerickson]

But videophiles will not determine the winner of the format war -- Joe and Jane consumer will.

Joe will not determine this format war!

 

[GeorgeLV]

Nice talking points. Unfortunately, you analysis breaks down when you consider that on the production side of things there's no reason a Blu-ray player costs more to manufacture than an HD-DVD player. Both formats have roughly the same processing and video decoder requirements. (Chipsets are already available that support both formats.) Both formats use the same blue laser. The only real hardware difference is the lens. (Blu-ray has a numerical aperture of .85, HD-DVD is .65.)

Unless your claim is that somehow the lens costs hundreds of dollars more on the Blu-ray side, be aware that they can match or beat HD-DVD player pricing for competitive reasons at will.

 

[jrbdmb]

Even if there are reasons that Blu-Ray costs more to manufacture, I would expect that Blu-Ray wiould be forced to match any pirce cuts that HD-DVD makes (and vis versa).

This is looking like the VHS - Beta war, both formats will exist for a while, something will give one format a "critical mass" advantage, then when the studios all start to switch to that format, the war is over. I picked Beta in the first war , this time I will probably stay on the sidelines until a clear winner emerges.

 

[db2]

I own both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray so I'm not a fanboy but I have to disagree with a few of your points.

So, what matters to the typical consumer? Two things: (1) value and (2) ease of use.

While those things certainly do matter to the typical consumer I'm not sure those two things matter MOST. IMHO the availability of key titles (Star Wars, Pirates of the Caribbean, etc.) plays a very important role. I don't think the average consumer will go out and buy an HD-DVD player, regardless of the price, if the titles they want aren't available to play.

The point is that what is vital in the format war in the long-term is the ability to provide a value-priced high def player that is easy to use. And this is what gives HD DVD the advantage -- its cost and price advantage is vital. Within 1 to 2 years (and perhaps sooner), there will be HD DVD players that are at or around $200 and that work about as well as current DVD players.

As these technologies mature I belive both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will satisfy in the area of value and ease of use. Yes, cheap HD-DVD players are on their way but so are cheap Blu-Ray players. Sony has not pushed the low price envelope yet because they know that price is not as big of a factor with early adopters. When they feel lower prices are needed they will bring them. As far as ease of use, I have no doubt that future models of both technologies will be bug free and very easy to operate.

I guess what I'm saying is that price and ease of use are obstacles Sony can and will easily overcome. Just look at what happened regarding PQ and AQ. By all accounts HD-DVD had a huge advantage out of the gate in this area and with a few small changes (dual layer 50gb and different compression), blu-ray has all but completely closed the gap. Studio support, on the other hand, is a much tougher road to climb for HD-DVD. Yes, studios would jump to HD-DVD if that format was clearly going to win but a lot of things have to happen for that to even begin to occur.

All that being said, I am enjoying both formats as well as dvd with no regrets. If and when one format wins I can still watch all of the titles I own with the equipment I own.

 

[Hoopnoop]

A couple of quick responses:

1. I frankly don't know whether HD DVD has a cost advantage. I've read in some forums that they have a lower per unit cost of production in terms of the players and also that HD DVDs can be produced at a lower cost compared with Blue Ray. Even if this is not the case, I would argue that it is ridiculous at this point to declare Blue Ray a winner simply because of their strength with studios, PS3, etc. If price is a key factor with the mass market and neither has a cost advantage then I would expect the format war to go on for many years perhaps without an ultimate winner.

2. Regarding high def releases - I'm certainly not arguing that these don't matter. I can certainly imagine some consumers going Blue Ray because of some of the titles that they have (e.g., Disney titles for the kids). But to the typical consumer, there's not that much of a difference between Ice Age on DVD versus Blue Ray. And in many cases, the consumer already owns the title, especially family titles. So, I just don't see this as having the degree of advantage that some would argue it does.

I think what's clear at this point is that both formats will survive until they begin hitting the mass market (which should be within a few years). And that's when things should get very interesting.

 

[db2]

You bring up some good points Hoopnoop, it's nice to have a civil argument in an online thread.

I would argue that it is ridiculous at this point to declare Blue Ray a winner simply because of their strength with studios, PS3, etc.

I, for one, am definitely not declaring Blu-Ray a winner yet. I am only speculating on the future given what facts we have now. I think both formats know that the potential for high def hardware and disc sales will not be reached until the war is over so that is why everyone is so quick to declare victory...they want, and perhaps need, it to end.

But to the typical consumer, there's not that much of a difference between Ice Age on DVD versus Blue Ray.

Well, that speaks to the bigger question of if/when joe consumer will embrace high def discs at all. IMHO as sales of HD television sets and HD programming increase, joe consumer will eventually notice the difference. In other words, when joe consumer gets a tv that is able to show the difference and gets used to watching HD programming, the difference between regular and high def dvds will become apparent.

And in many cases, the consumer already owns the title, especially family titles.

I half agree with you on that point in regards to catalog titles, but what about new films? Shrek 3??

I think what's clear at this point is that both formats will survive until they begin hitting the mass market (which should be within a few years). And that's when things should get very interesting.

Whether or not this will happen depends on the studios and retailers IMHO. In their eyes the sooner this war ends the better. The Best Buys, Circuit Cities and Targets of the world believe that as long as there are two formats, average consumers will still be confused and will not buy.

 

[navychop]

I have watched the "root kit" company come to the party late, and with an inferior product. I watched them push single layer BDs with less than pristine PQ, using an inferior codec. I watched the first Blu-ray player deliver "soft" images due to poor decisions made in design, and a lack of product review before release. I watched as HD-DVD incorporated interactivity from the beginning, and Blu-ray isn't there yet. I watched them put products on the market with no ethernet connection to simplify firmware updates and allow extra features. I watched as their most cost effective player was a game console. I watched as they announced that new features would be mandatory as of 10/31/07, with no assurance current players could be retrofitted with the new features and full compatibility. Indeed, some authors doubt that these new features can be done in software alone with no additional hardware.

And yet Blu-ray still outsells HD-DVD by over two (some say three) to one.

Why? Greater capacity? Maybe that's part of it. Better marketing? That's probably part of it- but think how much more logical to the casual buyer the term "HD-DVD" is, compared to "Blu-ray." Blue what? What's that? But an HD version of a DVD is pretty self explanatory.

People don't buy players for the sake of the player. Well, most of us don't. They buy a tool to watch a movie. And at these prices, it's not a casual buy, so the potential buyer is likely to do at least a little research. And that's when they discover that 5 out of the major 8 studios are Blu-ray exclusive, and only one, probably the one with the weakest catalog, is HD-DVD exclusive. Frankly, that buyer-to-be probably looks no further than to see that Disney, and all their subsidiaries, are available exclusively on Blu-ray. Joe Six Pack is not interested in hearing that he can maybe buy an imported Disney movie on HD-DVD from Europe, or online, or from some guy on the corner. He sees a rack of movies in the store, where he's most likely to buy or rent.

So why aren't the studios supporting both?
1. Economically, it makes more sense for there to be only one format to produce, stock, etc.
2. Blu-ray has greater capacity and room for future growth. There's already a 2 movies on one disc release.
3. Blu-ray has more security- watermarking and the upcoming BD+. We'll see if this works out.
4. Blu-ray has regional encoding, to further help protect studio profits. Ask Disney about this.
5. Costs are comparable to the consumer. Yes, they are. Never mind theory/wishes.

Studios will act in their own self interest. And it seems that, for better or worse, most of them have chosen Blu-ray.

Stating that it's "not fair" that the studios don't produce in both formats is pointless. And I've seen the same folks that crow about Toshiba subsidizing their player, complain about Sony subsidizing disc production. Consistency?

I keep seeing that old argument that "HD-DVD is cheaper" keep rising it's ugly head. Guess what- it isn't. The fact that it costs more to build or retrofit a plant to produce Blu-ray than HD-DVD means little. Over the millions of discs to be produced over several years, the amortization comes out to less than a dollar at the consumer level. And there are arguments that the actual production of a BD is cheaper than an HD-DVD, under some circumstances. Whether that's true or not is uncertain- but the costs are so close as to be a minor factor. Certainly, amortizing the cost of the plant will make the BD more costly, but again, it seems to be less than a dollar at the retail level.

Note that with the Amazon sale, Blu-ray is (temporarily) much cheaper than HD-DVD ($29.80 to $40.40 as of 13:16 Central time today). So it is possible.

And as has been stated- cheap HD-DVD players will be joined very quickly by cheap Blu-ray players.

Bottom line- look around. In stores and online, you can find the prices of the two discs is about the same. And you can find comparably priced players in the two formats. Look at eproductwars and see the rankings.

I don't like seeing Sony come out ahead. I simply don't trust them and likely never will. I will never forget their "root kit" and "stick the consumer" attitude. And some poor hardware they sold me. But it appears that Blu-ray is ahead, and has every likelihood of "winning" - at least insofar as there may be a winner. And the only consolation is that the higher current and future capacity may bring benefits.

 

[mrsdrgn]

I have a PS3 and Toshiba HD-A2. While everyone is arquing over which will survive, I am enjoying both of them. GO NETFLIX!!!!!!!!
The price did drop. I just bought my HD-A2 from amazon for $350-$30 for visa app=320. Not a bad price. PS3 for $540 from Target with the 10% credid card discount. The PS3 is worth more than the stand alone BD player. Not only I can watch the movies, but I can upload my photos, music, videos on the 60gb drive. Why would anyone by the stand alone player?
My point is that for the same price of a $900 BD player you can have it both ways.
I have to say that the BD picture is fantastic. I am watching them on my 52" Sharp LCD Aquas 1080p.

 

[JoeSp]

Interesting conversation with my UPS driver today. He meantioned that he just got a HDTV and that he was looking at "High Definition BluRay" but that his DVDs looked pretty good. After a few questions I found out that he is comparing HD to what he has seen from his cable and dish networks. He has not yet seen OTA HD and did not know that there was a significant differance in OTA and cable and dish.

But, to him high def DVD was BluRay and he was comparing BluRay and regular DVDs. He has been watching DVD on a SD tv and now those same DVDs are looking pretty good on his new HDTV. We all know why so on to the chase.

My take on this is that the average consumer is seeing BluRay as the next generation in movies because the name is differant. Vhs to DVD to BluRay. Seems that the HD-DVD name is backfiring on that camp. In addition, he was talking about his kids and said that when certain movies come out he just might buy a BluRay player. Now anyone here who does not believe that Disney is not swinging this thought pattern for parents please hold up your hands? Don't see any so I will move on.

I have said this at least 25 times on this forum. People buy players to play the movies they want to watch. And when they decided to buy that high def player it is BluRay advertising movies on almost every channel. New releases same date BluRay is very common. And 95% of all family movies are only on BluRay. In addition because of the Combo discs even movies that are on the same format are now cheaper on BD. Add to this no regional coding and no other security level in the mix and HD-DVD is not only behind the Eight Ball but they are starting to push up a very big hill.

Is this 'war' over -- no. Heck, we are probably just entering the first turn. But I have never seen a horse jump out to a 4 length lead at the start to lose it by the first turn without falling down. It seems that Janurary thru March this is just what the HD-DVD camp has done they had a tremendous lead and not only lost the lead but lost momentum. Whether they can get back up on their feet and compete we will see. Cheaper players are not going to help if the movies the consumers want are on BD only. The consumer is smart enough to smell a sellout when they see one. And the studios know that two formats is only hurting the new 'high def video format' and the the end of one is the only way either can survive. I think by Spring of 08 it will pretty much be over.

 

[navychop]

Why would anyone buy the stand alone player?
My point is that for the same price of a $900 BD player you can have it both ways.

1. Some don't like that ugly 4 letter "S" word on the PS3.
2. Currently no way to control it with a universal remote such as Harmony- and no reason to expect to ever be able to.
3. PS3s might not be upgradeable to the 10/31/07 specs- BD-java, PIP etc.
4. Some don't like the idea/appearance of a video game machine in their living room.

My take on this is that the average consumer is seeing BluRay as the next generation in movies because the name is different. VHS to DVD to BluRay. Seems that the HD-DVD name is backfiring on that camp.

I hadn't thought to see it that way. But this could well be true.

And yes, if cheapo HD-DVD players suddenly appear, it might be seen as a close out of the format. Divx players got real cheap right at the end.

 

[JoeSp]

The PS3 is fully upgradable to whatever Sony would like that can run thru HDMI 1.3 and that includes BD-Java. However, that said, I will still buy a standalone to play my BD movies when one comes out that will do a better job then my PS3.