If the Vita came out like 3 years ago it would probably stand more of a chance. Nowadays with mobile phone gaming being the juggernaut that it is I really don't see a market for this. I really don't think people are looking for a portable PS3. Sony DEFINITELY did not help themselves by making proprietary hardware AGAIN and jacking up the price on them. Also, not allowing the UMD Passport program (get digital copies of PSP games at potentially major discounts) in the USA will do nothing to entice PSP owners to become early adopters. Something tells me that over time they may try to integrate Android support and allow the Vita to play some of their games, because I do not see this device having a great deal of 3rd party support.
Doesn't help that they're charging full price for games that you can get cheaper on EVERY OTHER SYSTEM, including the PSN.Launch lineup so poor that 2 of the 23 titles accounted for 50% of all Vita SW sales for the launch in Europe: Uncharted and FIFA.
While I believe the Vita will continue to flop without significant price reductions/bundling deals (resulting in big lo$$e$), Sony does continue to move a lot of PS3 consoles and software. And I'm sure some of their projections are based on their hopes for the PS4. FWIW, according to VGChartz the Vita has sold about 1.8 million units worldwide as of March 31. Global Weekly Video Game Chart, Week Ending 31st Mar 2012 - VGChartz