Universal feeling pressure to go Blu?

[JoeSp]

This was reported in Variety this past Sunday:

Variety.com - Pressure mounts on U to turn Blu

Is it possible that a move by Universal to offer BluRay would effectively end this silly war?

 

[1080iBeVuMin]

More than possible, don't you think?

The world has a huge market of consumers these days on which U.S. is becoming less influential. So HD-DVD forces could pull off a clever victory if they lead by lowest prices, foreign studios, and non-U.S. sales. They still have time, but the clock is ticking...

 

[CochiseGuy]

This was reported in Variety this past Sunday:

Variety.com - Pressure mounts on U to turn Blu

Is it possible that a move by Universal to offer BluRay would effectively end this silly war?

In answer to the question - yes, of course a move by Universal to go dual format would effectively end the format competition. But it ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

And that is one stupid article. There isn't a single sentence that supports the title.

"We understand there is a lot of persuading going on right now," notes Doherty, who explains that as U execs make their summer travels to destinations including investment banker Herb Allen's Sun Valley media confab, counterparts on the Blu-ray side are likely saying, 'OK, let's talk.'"

I can speculate better than that. And compare that one paragraph of speculation to the one paragraph quoting someone who actually is intimate with the situation:

"We're still at such an early stage that it's hard to gauge how (selling Blu-ray, too) would have any impact," Graffeo says. "When you sell 6 million standard-definition units of a title, and you're selling only about 70,000 in hi-def, it's hard to say, 'Wow, look at what we're leaving on the table.' "

Yep, sure is a lot of pressure mounting up on Universal.

 

[diogen]

The Variety article is heavily referencing Richard Doherty (please don't mistake him for Richard Doherty, Microsoft representative in AACS LA).
"Richard Doherty is a co-founder and Director of The Envisioneering Group; a two-decade old Seaford, NY Technology Assessment and Market Research Corporation." From here.
This is the same guy that just recently claimed:
"BD +, unlike AACS, which suffered a partial hack last year, won't likely be breached for 10 years." Doherty said "and if so the damage would effect one film and one player."
Leaving aside the "one film and one player" statement (that is completely wrong), this is certainly a very brave statement about 10 years.
Especially if it is based on Java-related technologies.
And it contradicts our local security "expert" statement:

There is only one code that has never been broken. The Navaho language when used by the US Military against the Japanese during World War II. Almost every code used by man has been broken very quickly. It is very easy to break a code once you get a footprint.

Diogen.

 

[JoeSp]

There are several languages spoken in remote parts of the world that could effect the same confusion that the Navaho language did on the Japanese during WWII. All these new security languages that are being written now are usually broken by some 14 year old kid messing arround on his personal computer.

Those who want to break a code will usually find a way. But BD+ is supposed to allow the studio some control over the key or keys used for a specific title thus allowing differant keys for differant products. At least that is what they keep harping on?

 

[diogen]

...BD+ is supposed to allow the studio some control over the key or keys used for a specific title...

Whatever little we know about BD+ (still no titles using it), says it will have a similar structure as AACS: key based, keys assigned by licensing authority.
Studios won't have more control unless the LA drops the 90 days (as with AACS keys) waiting period for revocation/updating.

BD+ has the unique ability (at least on spec) to run code on the host player.
That means if/when BD+ is broken, a BD disk can be mastered that will be able to brick your player (very much virus-like but no chance to "reinstall the OS").

...thus allowing differant keys for differant products.

AACS allows that, too. And more.
The universal processing key that all first generation movies used has nothing to do with AACS' inability to use unique keys for each title.

Diogen.

 

[navychop]

Consumers who had been waiting on the sidelines for assurance that the purchase of a $499 Sony Blu-ray drive would give them access to play Blu-ray movies from every major supplier would suddenly pony up.

"So much consumer interest would open up this summer and fall that every studio would be smiling and wondering why they've been jousting all this time," he notes. "Universal may continue to place its bets (on HD DVD). But if you want revenue, you put out what consumers want. And right now consumers want Blu-ray."

I hope they're right. A sudden uptick in sales would help lower prices, which would help sales, which would.... Anyway, a lot more releases would start coming out. Maybe Spielberg in 2008?


"If I'm a filmmaker, and I'm going to make a movie that's going to make half of its money in home entertainment, would I want to make it at Universal, and be with the wrong format?" Doherty wonders.

 

[AJMiami]

With all due respect. . . I see this "war" as something good. I hope the "war" keeps HW prices going down. If Sony wants me to go blue, they need to find a way to lower their cost and offer a player in the $200s.

There is no pressure on U yet, since the numbers are insignificant at the moment.

There is still a lot to be written. Blue has the upper hand, but I seen worse situations being turned around.

 

[navychop]

Agreed. It has it's positive points. But at some point, it will have served it's purpose and the medium will best be served by there being a single format, removing FUD. Or perhaps by public acceptance of 2 formats surviving- but that will take longer.