Tivo is now seen as a takeover target

[CK SatGuy]

Just thought it might be interesting to share this article from Bloomberg. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Dish or Echostar buy Tivo. I'm only going to post the link below because the article is just too long to post on here.

TiVo $2.4B Takeover Seen After Fight With Dish - Bloomberg

 

[MikeD-C05]

I would of thought that Charlie would of taken over Tivo before the settlement was struck. If he didn't do it then , I don't see him doing it now. But who knows? I didn't see the Blockbuster buyout coming either.

 

[Laddyboy]

The article seems to assume ATT, Verizon, and others like Microsoft are all just going to roll over and pay. I'm not so sure. Just because Dish folded doesn't mean they will.

 

[whitewolf8214]

I wouldnt ou it past charlie to buy tivo out since he almost bankrupt that company or did and with as longs as the lawsuit went maybe thats why charlie fought it as hard as he did....hmmm

 

[Tampa8]

Takeover to me is almost certain. I don't know enough to say who is most interested, or who gains the most to the rights.

 

[DishSubLA]

I don't see a "takeover" soon. These market reporters always print speculation of so much that never occurs. I have no doubt that TiVO itself is spreading this rumor to increase its stock value and all these companies have at least one "hired" mouthpiece in the financial media. PLEASE!

 

[mike123abc]

Echostar/Dish has no need to buy TiVo any more. They have their patent licenses, they do not need anything else from TiVo.

 

[Stargazer]

The only reason why Dish/Echo would buy Tivo is if they thought that they could get further licenses from other providers. If they bought Tivo then they would just get all the assets that they paid into it back I would think.

 

[DishSubLA]

Echostar/Dish has no need to buy TiVo any more. They have their patent licenses, they do not need anything else from TiVo.

Excellent point. And if TiVo continues its nosedive to death, Dish/Echostar will never have to pay the remaining payments spread out over some years. One article did allude to Dish/Echostar being a possible friendly takeover/merge with Dish not having to pay the remaining payments by buying TiVo.

However, I don't see that. Charlie and Tom [Rogers, CEO of TiVo] have always had a good personal relationship and still do despite the patent suit. Not only does Ergan now have a lot of TiVo patents he can use, but now that the suit is over (technically, not as the higher court has rejected the settlement and remanded the case back to Texas, but one can't see the judge in Texas standing in the way of the settlement) Dish can now, and wants to, work with TiVo regarding enhancing its purchase of Blockbuster and Tom is now willing to do so. In other words, the two companies are now cooperating and there is no point to Dish/Echostar buying TiVo.

As for any others buying TiVo, the price is to high for what the buyer would get, the defendants are taking the Charlie Ergan 5+ year road and can wait for TiVo to go on the auction block and then it would be an enticing buy for far less than the estimated $2+ billion. TiVo has NOTHING any of the other companies want, and TiVo lacks the one thing that is potentially more valuable than the patents: numbers of subscribers. If TiVo had a critical mass, then it would be worth it for any of the MVPD's to buy TiVo, but TiVo, in a practical sense, has virtually NO retail subscribers to be converted to any of the MVPD's new customers on its MVPD service.

Ironically, it is Dish's and DirecTV's large number of subscribers that is the most likely reason either AT&T or Verizon would ever buy one of the DBS companies. Overnight, the telcos would most likely inherit superior retransmission agreements and critical mass with which to leverage content providers. I think that is one of the reasons Charlie split Dish and Echostar, among other reasons. Either telco would likely unload the satellite network to the remaining DBS as running two networks could be tough on the economies. Of course the Feds would have to approve all this.

 

[TheForce]

TIVO News: In the bulls Eys for a takeover

Not sure where the best place to stick news about TIVO but since it seems to be in The DishNetwork section, here ya go:

Google, Microsoft Eye Tivo - Analyst Blog
9:15a ET July 5, 2011 (Zacks.com)

After the $500 million settlement with Dish Network Corp. (DISH) and EchoStar Corp. (SATS), Tivo Inc. (TIVO) is on the take over radar of multiple companies such as Google Inc. (GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Rovi Corp. (ROVI), as reported by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg has estimated that Tivo could be sold at a price of $20 per share, indicating a market cap of $2.41 billion.

Just prior to the settlement with DISH and SATS TIVO stock had dipped toward the $9 mark. At that time I felt it was a good spec stock at that price and picked up a hundred shares. With the settlement the stock never really took off and I was a little disappointed. Dish, on the other hand made significant gains in market cap over the settlement. Enough to more than cover the cost of the settlement. For once I think Charlie listened to his advisors like the Satelliteguys, namely Scott and did the right thing.
Now, hopefully with the rumor of a buyout, by one of the big boys, even I can make some pocket change on TIVO. It's been a couple years since I owned TIVO stock because they really didn't have a bright future. Now TIVO seems to be "Deep in the Money" especially for investors. Since this announcement, TIVO stock has gone up about 8% and only the speculative article above is anything significant.

Also- ( my opinion) Tivo has been considered a bad stock to own for future as it's technology has stagnated over the recent years. MIcrosoft has been looking to add to its portfolio, desperately grasping for a new gimmick to boost it's stature in tech. Microsoft has been a yawner for investors and word is Steve Balmer is on his last leg. Google has been also making some pretty bad business decisions in the last year beginning with the China fiasco. Latest is they backed down on the Nortel patent auction losing patent assets to its chief competitors in the cell phone business. So, if these two are the only companies interested in TIVO, does a loser buying a loser make a winner? I think it does for the stock holders of TIVO. For TIVO product fans, no, for Google and Microsoft investors, I don't think it will matter.

 

[KAB]

Discussed last week,
http://www.satelliteguys.us/dish-ne...-target.html?highlight=tivo+ripe+for+takeover

 

[TheForce]

Thanks KAB, Maybe a mod can merge my post into that original thread. No need for two threads. I missed the original article.

 

[DishSubLA]

IMHO, this is TiVo spin to drive up their stock price even more. The fact is TiVo, a good product, has NOTHING any of those cited nor any other company would want. No one, especially those possible buyers cited, is trying to design the next DVR (even Moxie very good 3 tuner DVR did NOT deliver the numbers). DVR's are fast becoming the past; it is streaming that is the now and future and none of TiVo's "time warp" or other DVR patents are of the value they may have been years ago.

Tivo will have to start suing Roku, Boxee Box, WD, and every other maker of streaming boxes if TiVo wants any future $$$ and any relevance.

 

[jacmyoung]

Don, during the TiVo v. E* debate everyone was predicting the fight would drag on forever, I was about the only one said they could settle, never say never.

But I also said a settlement would easily boost Dish's share value (for obvious reason) and disappoint TiVo investors.

The current buyout spin does appear to be an effort to pump TiVo's share value, while the street is clearly skeptical. The upcoming court ruling in the TiVo v. ATT/Verizon claims construction proceeding might be a mover again.

 

[TheForce]

Don, during the TiVo v. E* debate everyone was predicting the fight would drag on forever, I was about the only one said they could settle, never say never.

But I also said a settlement would easily boost Dish's share value (for obvious reason) and disappoint TiVo investors.

The current buyout spin does appear to be an effort to pump TiVo's share value, while the street is clearly skeptical. The upcoming court ruling in the TiVo v. ATT/Verizon claims construction proceeding might be a mover again.

I was one who felt dish would drag it out until TiVo was broke and then buy it. I was wrong. But I also saw and studied the sec filings and saw that TiVo was ripe for a buyout. That's when I bought some stock as a speculation. I know from much experience that M&A always is good for the stock holder of the company being bought and maybe for the company buying. Google and Microsoft are surprises but I would think Apple is a more likely match.

Sent from my iPad using SatelliteGuys app

 

[harshness]

I submit that TiVo is a house of cards built on some highly contentious patents and a quickly waning name familiarity. It doesn't seem like there's much else to be had that can't be obtained with a relatively paltry licensing settlement.

 

[whatchel1]

IMHO, this is TiVo spin to drive up their stock price even more. The fact is TiVo, a good product, has NOTHING any of those cited nor any other company would want. No one, especially those possible buyers cited, is trying to design the next DVR (even Moxie very good 3 tuner DVR did NOT deliver the numbers). DVR's are fast becoming the past; it is streaming that is the now and future and none of TiVo's "time warp" or other DVR patents are of the value they may have been years ago.

Tivo will have to start suing Roku, Boxee Box, WD, and every other maker of streaming boxes if TiVo wants any future $$$ and any relevance.

It will be a long time before streaming will replace DVR's. There are just way to many areas that can't handle streaming due to bandwidth limitations. Another thing many ISP's charge extra for too much use. Streaming will eat that up faster than almost anything else.

 

[MikeD-C05]

How about a steaming dvr? That is where tivo could create something new and different and it could really catch on. It could do ota, regular cable and internet streaming videos that you can record and save if you wanted.

 

[patrick80639]

How about a steaming dvr? That is where tivo could create something new and different and it could really catch on. It could do ota, regular cable and internet streaming videos that you can record and save if you wanted.

TiVo Premiere already does all of that.

 

[MikeD-C05]

TiVo Premiere already does all of that.

REALLY ? You can actually record the internet streaming videos and save them if you want?