" the wheels are falling off of satellite TV"

[jpmarto]

Not very encouraging...

Pay-TV Companies Are in Crisis Mode


"Barring a major fourth-quarter comeback, 2017 is on course to be the worst year for conventional pay-TV subscriber losses in history, surpassing last year’s 1.7 million, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That figure doesn’t include online services like DirecTV Now. Even including those digital plans, the five biggest TV providers are projected to have lost 469,000 customers in the third quarter.

AT&T sank 6.1 percent, the biggest one-day loss since November 2008. Dish, which also provides satellite service, declined 5.1 percent. Viacom dropped 2.5 percent while AMC Networks, Inc. fell 6.8 percent after Guggenheim Securities LLC downgraded the two stocks to neutral from buy."

“It is becoming increasingly clear that the wheels are falling off of satellite TV,” said Craig Moffett, an analyst at MoffettNathanson LLC, in a research note.

 

[mdram]

15-20 percent of the us has no access to broadband
sat tv is going no where

 

[dare2be]

Going to have to give more choices and control over channels and packages to stay afloat. The time is near.

 

[HipKat]

15-20 percent of the us has no access to broadband
sat tv is going no where

I wouldn’t say it’s not going anywhere. Dish has acknowledged that satellite subscribers are down about 30%. Which is why they have forged relationships with Samsung, Sears, Amazon etc.

 

[fmj77]

The wheels will never fall off completely as long as there are rural folks with no other choice but satellite for TV.

 

[dare2be]

The wheels will never fall off completely as long as there are rural folks with no other choice but satellite for TV.

80% of the US population is in urban areas. Even if the per capita subscription rates of satellite in rural areas was 5x the rate of urban areas, that would mean that half of satellite customers were from rural areas, and the other half urban. I don't think either satellite company would survive if nearly half of their customers disappeared, UNLESS the channel owners dropped their subscription rates accordingly. You know the chance of that.

 

[mdram]

remember those rural customers cant stream
if they ditch sat tv they may get 1 or 2 maybe a few more channels
not like urban that get a dozen

 

[dare2be]

If that's a response to my post, you just made my point. If a vast majority of urban customers left because there were better options OTT, and all of the rural customers stayed, satellite would still likely not be profitable.

 

[mdram]

they got along fine with rural when they started

 

[dare2be]

short-sighted.

programming costs have gone up 20x the rate of inflation too since then. no way just rural customers could hold the current price model, hence my comment about channel owners having to change as well.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

I think you will see DISH and DIRECTV move to offer a higher quality service, offering things that will be hard to get online, such as 4K and higher quality HD.

 

[mwdxer1]

I did not have high speed out here until about 2012. Our speed via Charter is 60. No DSL out here and may never be, even though it is available 1.5 miles away, but living in a rural area, Century Link I guess does not want to spend the money. I think I was told some years back I could pay $2,000 to get it to my house. Satellite internet is available as well as cel phone, but it is more expensive. I have a Roku and I do spend a lot of viewing time on streaming now. One issue for those who go for Sling or Direct Now, only a handful of locals are available. For us on the coast ABC/NBC. Nothing else unless it is available OTA. But according to sources that should change in the next couple of years. But with the high cost of satellite TV, and not being able to put together our own package, people are jumping ship as there are cheaper alternatives. One thing out here, sometimes Charter will have short outages, so keeping Dish is needed. But with streaming, we do not need to buy channels we do not want. Also there are many companies now that offer streaming. More to come.

 

[dare2be]

I think you will see DISH and DIRECTV move to offer a higher quality service, offering things that will be hard to get online, such as 4K and higher quality HD.

Which would still be a niche market. It might work, but how many rural customers can support an upscale niche market?

How many rural customers are holding on to their 10-year-old equipment?

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

It wouldnt just be niche, with the bandwidth caps people will want satellite again.

 

[dare2be]

I did not have high speed out here until about 2012. Our speed via Charter is 60. No DSL out here and may never be, even though it is available 1.5 miles away, but living in a rural area, Century Link I guess does not want to spend the money. I think I was told some years back I could pay $2,000 to get it to my house. Satellite internet is available as well as cel phone, but it is more expensive. I have a Roku and I do spend a lot of viewing time on streaming now.

Good point. Not all rural areas are without HSI, and that footprint continues to shrink.

 

[dare2be]

It wouldnt just be niche, with the bandwidth caps people will want satellite again.

Which, as I said previously, if the content owners (who drive the bus) don't adapt along with the times, then it'll be too late for there to be any satellite to come back to.

 

[mdram]

its actually better than i thought
2016 Broadband Progress Report

• 10 percent of all Americans (34 million people) lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps service.
• 39 percent of rural Americans (23 million people) lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps.
  • By contrast, only 4 percent of urban Americans lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps broadband.
  • The availability of fixed terrestrial services in rural America continues to lag behind urban America at all speeds: 20 percent lack access even to service at 4 Mbps/1 Mbps, down only 1 percent from 2011, and 31 percent lack access to 10 Mbps/1 Mbps, down only 4 percent from 2011.
• 41 percent of Americans living on Tribal lands (1.6 million people) lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps broadband
  • 68 percent living in rural areas of Tribal lands (1.3 million people) lack access.
• 66 percent of Americans living in U.S. territories (2.6 million people) lack access to 25 Mbps/3 Mbps broadband.
  • 98 percent of those living in rural territorial areas (1.1 million people) lack access.
• Americans living in rural and urban areas adopt broadband at similar rates where 25 Mbps/ 3 Mbps service is available, 28 percent in rural areas and 30 percent in urban areas.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

I know a few cord cutters around my area who have come back to Satellite (and LOVE the Hopper 3) because they were getting whacked by Cox in overage fees on their broadband bills.

Some also said it was too hard to find what they want to watch, one day it would be there and next day it was gone. (I am guessing they were going the KODI route)

 

[dare2be]

I'm not saying that the wheels are falling off yet, just that the lug nuts are starting to loosen.

 

[MikeD-C05]

I think you will see DISH and DIRECTV move to offer a higher quality service, offering things that will be hard to get online, such as 4K and higher quality HD.

WHEN?