The reason porn swayed the VHS Betamax war was because at that time the only place to get porn was in a magazine, or go to a nasty, dirty, sleazy theater. The video revolution put an end to that and people could enjoy porn in the privacy of their homes. The fact that porn went with the cheaper, though inferior VHS did play a big role in it's success.
Cut to 30years later. Free porn is everywhere. Most people get porn over the internet today. Are the consumers of porn videophiles? I think not. They will continue to get porn the cheapest way possible. Will they be plunking own $25 for an HD copy of a movie, or spend $25 for a one month access to a porn site?
I think the whole "porn industry influence" was a one time thing. Many factors have since changed and this format war will ultimately be decided by mainstream content.
CES brought about a huge slate for Bluray this year. No major HD exclusive titles, no new titles announced from Universal, and Warner and New Line committing to releasing everything on both formats via THD discs.
I know many people want HD-DVD to succeed just for the fact that it would mean another Sony failure, but going by the announced titles for 2007, Bluray has the clear advantage. Family titles like "Pirates of the Caribbean" are going to make the difference, not adult titles like "Pirates"
Read through sites like Engadget and engadgethd for info on the titles that were announced at CES. Bluray has come out swinging. The fact that HD-DVD does not have support from the biggest players, while Bluray has them all is going to put an end to it. Exclusives like Sony, MGM and Fox will have a major impact once big titles like Star Wars, Spiderman, 007, etc start making their way to Bluray.