Prediction: Cablevision will sell Voom

[Sean Mota]

Hey so what's new about Phillip Swann making predictions. Here's his prediction about VOOM, yet again I have seen this prediction also made by some of our eloquent users. Let's play devi'ls advocate for a minute. If it does happen (which it makes sense), who do you think will buy VOOM - E* or D*. Why will Cablevision sell VOOM?

Source

By Phillip Swann

Cablevision will sell Voom. In the fall of 2003, cable operator Cablevision launched an ambitious new satellite TV service called "Voom." I say "ambitious" because the dish is targeted largely to the HDTV audience. Voom's lineup includes up to 39 different hi-def networks-four times as many as its satellite and cable rivals.

However, although it's growing, the hi-def audience is only around 7 million homes, far too small to sustain a new satellite TV business. Plus, with Voom retailing at more than $700, most hi-def dish enthusiasts will choose DirecTV or EchoStar, both of which offer less-expensive systems.

So I predict that Cablevision will throw in the towel in 2004 and sell Voom's subscriber list to either DirecTV or EchoStar.

 

[MikeD-C05]

Dish makes the most sense. They already have a sat at 61.5 so it would fit quite nicely with their existing 2 dish solution.

 

[Sean Mota]

Dish makes the most sense. They already have a sat at 61.5 so it would fit quite nicely with their existing 2 dish solution.

I agree but Dish has already started a campaign of a one dish solution by moving all HD core channels to 110.

As much as I like VOOM to be successful, I also think that there are gaps in the technical and financial planning.

Technical:

(1) Wilt mentioned that VOOM's satellite is currently full and transmitting all the channels that will be released by 2/1/04 so that users should not see degradation in quality as more channels are added to the PG. These channel are right now hidden from subscribers. But what will happen when new channels are added like - TNT, USA, The Outdoor Channel, 29 HD networks and all others that have not been announced but could make an announcement in 2004. How is VOOM going to face this challenge since they have so few transponder and more and more HD channels will be added? Also, worth mentioning that MPEG-4 will not be available for HD channels until 2005 and that will not add a large significant space to add more than HD 10 channels.

(2) Do they have the resources to get more transponder at other frequencies?

(3) Will Echostar give up some of their transponder at 61.5? Not likely.

(4) DVR will arrive late. Is the competition going to cut into their revenue? It could have made a lot more sense if they could have a DVR ready from the get go or before the TIVO hits the market.


Financial:

(1) Can they survive by not making a profit until they get enough customers?

(2) VOOM did not heavily advertized during the holidays. We saw a few commercials but we did not see Voom commercials on the local networks during big events. Does this signify financial trouble?

(3) Do they have enough $$ to make their 21 exclusive channels worth of having? That is, can they make a strong case to have these channels. I know we like them but are they compelling to the masses?

P.S. none of these are my original ideas but questions/concerns that have been echoed throughout the internet community about VOOM. This is not an indication of going into a panic mode yet. Phillip Swan makes a blank prediction based on the initial fee and if it comes true, he thinks he is a genius. Yet, most of our users know more about what's really going on.

 

[Lucky]

If VOOM were taken over by E* or D* what would happen to us subscribers ? Would our VOOM equipment still work ? Would E* or D* makes us a special deal to become one of their subscribers ? Also, could I still use my VOOM box for OTA channels ?

 

[Sean Mota]

If VOOM were taken over by E* or D* what would happen to us subscribers ? Would our VOOM equipment still work ? Would E* or D* makes us a special deal to become one of their subscribers ? Also, could I still use my VOOM box for OTA channels ?

Lucky,

(Warning: The assumption here is that E* has bought VOOM. This is not currently the case)

There are probably three scenarios to this.

1. Your only provider is VOOM: this means that you will remain with your VOOM box and E* could decide to switch your box with an 811 (once all the channels are mapped to the 811). You become an E* subscriber.

2. You are already a E* subscriber and a VOOM subscriber (my case). I will think that E* will not charge me for both accounts until all channels are transfered to E* and then will get an 811 or continue with my 6000 unit.

3. You are already a D* subscriber and a VOOM subscriber. Again E* will swap the box for an 811 and you now have D* and E*.

All sound simple but it could get very complicated and a big issue/problem. I really don't want this to happen because it will create chaos and bring me back under the E* umbrella.

Also, VOOM selling to E*/D* will make one provider the sole "HD Leader" in the short term but in the long term, we consumers will not get the benefit of market competition from three providers. VOOM could drive the HD market and make E* and D* compete which it is all good for consumers.

 

[rang1995]

and where prey tell, would the signal come from,since i am limited to 61.5 and 101

 

[Gore1]

I don't think "d" or "e" will buy Voom. It will be a big cable operator like Comcast or TW with deep pockets looking to expand into sat. I don't think the FCC would allow Murdoch to buy another company anytime soon.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

Actually the rumor I am hearing is that Pegasus could be interested in VOOM.

 

[Stargazer]

Probably a swap out of the boxes if they can make the satellite work with the formats that their receivers use. I would say that they will give it most if not all of this year to see if the service is going to gain momentum before deciding to sell the service.