Actually, considerig normal usage patterns, even if fragmentation was an issue with XFS (which is a different discussion), it would not be that much of a factor with a DVR.
Basically, most of the time, we're using space in 30 minute chunks. So when an old show gets deleted, it leaves a hole that's "close" to the correct size for reuse. Of course, due to bandwidth differences, it's not 100%, but overall I don't think it's a problem.
BTW, My 921's 250GB HDD is full almost all the time, and I've never had a problem that I can even begin to blame the filesystem for.
The only anomaly is that when deleting things, sometimes I get "more" space back than the program "used". This might be due to space at the end of the deleted show that was ignored (maybe because it was smaller than the base allocation unit) now being returned to free space. That's all speculation of course, but I can see it.
This hypothesis is in addition to the normal "unevenness" of space usage due to bandwidth usage differences (some shows will use more space than others for several reasons - transmit allocation, motion levels, and of course, HD shows take 7 times as much space as SD).