Is the PS3 going to really shake things up this holiday season?

[shanewalker]

So, I'm wondering if the recent sales rates for Bluray and the recent spike in Playstation 3 systems are related?

I, personally, took advantage of the 2-for-1 and such offers on Amazon and have a stack of 12 Blurays at home and up until today, I didn't have a Bluray player. I just received my big holiday gift (a bit early )...an 80GB PS3. I know I'll be receiving a few more Bluray titles for Christmas (Blade Runner, etc.) BTW, I put off purchasing the system until some solid game titles and more movie titles had made their way to market, plus the new price drop was incentive to wait...and I suspect, in that, I'm definitely not alone.

So, am I an anomaly (no jokes please ) or am I part of a trend this season that is, perhaps, going to really affect the format war this holiday season?

 

[IcEWoLF]

This Holiday season will decide the future of the format war, if BR does very well this Holiday (which I believe they will) there is no way for HD-DVD to catch up anymore, the gap will be getting bigger and bigger.
So far the main Blockbuster movie that hd-dvd had was Transformers (If we are speaking on exclusivity) Which in this case BR has a whole line up of it.
Blu-ray has more titles that users desire to buy more, I should say the better movie selection because of the studios backing them up.

 

[ONUOsFan]

This Holiday season will decide the future of the format war, if BR does very well this Holiday (which I believe they will) there is no way for HD-DVD to catch up anymore, the gap will be getting bigger and bigger.
So far the main Blockbuster movie that hd-dvd had was Transformers (If we are speaking on exclusivity) Which in this case BR has a whole line up of it.
Blu-ray has more titles that users desire to buy more, I should say the better movie selection because of the studios backing them up.

I think Warner still holds the key to this thing, and when they pick a side it will be all but over (unless they pick HD and Disney and Fox still hold out for BD, but I don't think that would last long).

The only way your statement will come true IMO is if Harry Potter sells far better on one format than the other to the point that Warner makes a move... but I'm not so sure they're ready yet, for whatever reason. I think this "war" will still be going on next year - by that time, we'll be close to the end of the Paramount 18 months with HD-DVD so they could move back in early 2009 if this Christmas AND next are heavily weighted toward BD and/or Warner makes a move.

Either way, I think you'll still see a healthy number of discs in both colors well past this holiday season.

But to answer the original question, I think the PS3 can help BD's cause, especially since they're putting Spider-Man in the box with the 40 GB. Whether it really will or not is hard to say. 1Q will be interesting, after everyone has unwrapped their new HD and BD players and PS3's and starts buying for them.

 

[IcEWoLF]

I think Warner still holds the key to this thing, and when they pick a side it will be all but over (unless they pick HD and Disney and Fox still hold out for BD, but I don't think that would last long).

The only way your statement will come true IMO is if Harry Potter sells far better on one format than the other to the point that Warner makes a move... but I'm not so sure they're ready yet, for whatever reason. I think this "war" will still be going on next year - by that time, we'll be close to the end of the Paramount 18 months with HD-DVD so they could move back in early 2009 if this Christmas AND next are heavily weighted toward BD and/or Warner makes a move.

Either way, I think you'll still see a healthy number of discs in both colors well past this holiday season.

But to answer the original question, I think the PS3 can help BD's cause, especially since they're putting Spider-Man in the box with the 40 GB. Whether it really will or not is hard to say. 1Q will be interesting, after everyone has unwrapped their new HD and BD players and PS3's and starts buying for them.

Every single title that came out for both formats on BR it sold better.
Thats a fact, and I am sure Warner knows who they should chose.

 

[meStevo]

Every single title that came out for both forums on BR it sold better.
Thats a fact, and I am sure Warner knows who they should chose.

I am sure they know who is leading and have real numbers, and not media/marketing hot air, but they are clearly waiting for one side to take leadership and own the segment. That hasn't happened yet. We're talking 10:1 or better software sales, not this 2:1 stuff.

 

[IcEWoLF]

Elstevo, it doesn't matter, either shape or form you put it, BR is with PS3, who cares they are getting it done by selling more discs! Do you understand that? I am not sure how to put it for you........BR IS MAKING MORE MONEY THAN HD-DVD....can you at least understand that?
BR Is making way more money than HD-DVD and thats the buttom line, they are making more money for the studios, studios don't give a rat **** on how many players you sell other than Sony & Microsoft in some ways, as long as you sell their movies and a big amount of them, they will be happy with you.
We are beating on a dead dog right now (HD-DVD) they lost, they ain't got nothing left...the big titles are coming out for BR, even when movies come out for both formats, BR is beating them in every aspect, and lets face it, BR has more titles that people like*...I think I've repeated myself about this hundreds of times.

Real or fake numbers at this point don't count, because obviusly you can see BR sells much better than HD-DVD in any retail stores/online.

 

[randers29259]

I am sure they know who is leading and have real numbers, and not media/marketing hot air, but they are clearly waiting for one side to take leadership and own the segment. That hasn't happened yet. We're talking 10:1 or better software sales, not this 2:1 stuff.

Where did the 10:1 number come from, is that from the studios? Are you just speculating?

 

[JoeSp]

Does Warner want to be a King maker or do they just want to push their profits to the max. Think about this -- Warner comes out and says that they are going to be looking at sales numbers this Xmas season and that they are going to 'chose' in this format war.

Next day someone else comes out and says that what was said was misunderstood and that Warner had already 'chose' the middle of the road and was going to continue to support both formats.

Most of us want to believe the first statement and very few of us believe the second statement for very good reasons. If Warner were to chose HD-DVD only then that format could not lose -- period. And HD-DVD owners everywhere would cheer and be happy. But, if Warner were to chose BluRay exclusivity that would for all sense and purposes end the war between the formats. HD-DVD would be dead (after their exclusive contracts ran out with Paramount and Dreamworks) and Universal might start releasing on BluRay early in 2008. BluRay wins. If Warner stays with their current business plans and continues support for both formats neither wins and both formats continue their little consumer war. And Warner keeps selling movies -- their business.

But, what if the 'cat-out-of-the-bag' from Warner was just a smoke screen to get supporters of both formats to go out this XMAS and purchase their titles more because of the desire to get Warner to select their favorite format? Warner gets free advertising by way of the media and we buy alot of Warner titles which makes Warner happy this XMAS and they continue their support for both formats? Pretty smart move on their part - huh?

 

[meStevo]

Does Warner want to be a King maker or do they just want to push their profits to the max. Think about this -- Warner comes out and says that they are going to be looking at sales numbers this Xmas season and that they are going to 'chose' in this format war.

Next day someone else comes out and says that what was said was misunderstood and that Warner had already 'chose' the middle of the road and was going to continue to support both formats.

Most of us want to believe the first statement and very few of us believe the second statement for very good reasons. If Warner were to chose HD-DVD only then that format could not lose -- period. And HD-DVD owners everywhere would cheer and be happy. But, if Warner were to chose BluRay exclusivity that would for all sense and purposes end the war between the formats. HD-DVD would be dead (after their exclusive contracts ran out with Paramount and Dreamworks) and Universal might start releasing on BluRay early in 2008. BluRay wins. If Warner stays with their current business plans and continues support for both formats neither wins and both formats continue their little consumer war. And Warner keeps selling movies -- their business.

But, what if the 'cat-out-of-the-bag' from Warner was just a smoke screen to get supporters of both formats to go out this XMAS and purchase their titles more because of the desire to get Warner to select their favorite format? Warner gets free advertising by way of the media and we buy alot of Warner titles which makes Warner happy this XMAS and they continue their support for both formats? Pretty smart move on their part - huh?

I agree with you about the Warner stuff aside from the last paragraph because most of the BD/HD news ends up on enthusiast websites and aside from people like us who debate stuff like this on message boards, it will never hit the ears of the masses, they are interested in the simple things like cost of media and cost of entry and to a lesser extent, title availability. I say to a lesser extent because when they go to consider which to buy, they are seeing rows and rows of SD DVDs and then whatever selection there is of the HD discs, which is limited regardless of format in quantity.

For the studio, it's about their bottom line, and clearly there is enough potential in both to keep Warner neutral for the time being, and movement in the status quo will dictate where they end up. 10:1 was an arbitrary 'getting your ass handed to you' ratio I pulled out of the same orrifice.

Point is, selling # of copies in the thousands, and not hundreds of thousands on a weekly basis and touting any kind of victory is foolish. 300, the best selling disc for either format (by best selling, i mean most units sold) has sold an average of 9246 units/week for the 2 formats after it's first huge '250k sold' week (July 31-Oct 31, figures from screenshot of Sony presentation in the digi bits thread, 500k PS3s sold during this same period btw).

We need to do less definitive 'you've lost' debating, and more talking about the numbers and backing our horse. Otherwise it's time for the 'Mission Accomplished' graphic. If you'd like I'll find it and post it again so you can add it to your av/sig Ice Turkey.

As for people making money... that's up for debate as well, it is believed it costs more for creation of a BD disc doesn't it? That is what I understood, so will let someone wiser explain that and leave it there. Otherwise if you can show that it costs more to make and sell 6000 of one format vs 3000 of another, feel free to post a link. The cost to make things general has a depreciation to it, last I checked licensing fees generally do not.

Sony is making good progress, packing Spidey in with their new SKU exposes people to the BD capabilities, and their marketing is going toward moving it as a game machine, they should be applauded for that effort - which pains me to say as a Xbox guy... but I'd like to get a PS3 one day and I want it to not suck when I do.

I still maintain that we won't see much reliable from the weekly figures for the holiday, too many sales either skewing things to look good/bad for EITHER side, and if they still really do not have Wal-Mart data then I question even debating them all like we have been.

 

[IcEWoLF]

I agree with you about the Warner stuff aside from the last paragraph because most of the BD/HD news ends up on enthusiast websites and aside from people like us who debate stuff like this on message boards, it will never hit the ears of the masses, they are interested in the simple things like cost of media and cost of entry and to a lesser extent, title availability. I say to a lesser extent because when they go to consider which to buy, they are seeing rows and rows of SD DVDs and then whatever selection there is of the HD discs, which is limited regardless of format in quantity.

For the studio, it's about their bottom line, and clearly there is enough potential in both to keep Warner neutral for the time being, and movement in the status quo will dictate where they end up. 10:1 was an arbitrary 'getting your ass handed to you' ratio I pulled out of the same orrifice.

Point is, selling # of copies in the thousands, and not hundreds of thousands on a weekly basis and touting any kind of victory is foolish. 300, the best selling disc for either format (by best selling, i mean most units sold) has sold an average of 9246 units/week for the 2 formats after it's first huge '250k sold' week (July 31-Oct 31, figures from screenshot of Sony presentation in the digi bits thread, 500k PS3s sold during this same period btw).

We need to do less definitive 'you've lost' debating, and more talking about the numbers and backing our horse. Otherwise it's time for the 'Mission Accomplished' graphic. If you'd like I'll find it and post it again so you can add it to your av/sig Ice Turkey.

As for people making money... that's up for debate as well, it is believed it costs more for creation of a BD disc doesn't it? That is what I understood, so will let someone wiser explain that and leave it there. Otherwise if you can show that it costs more to make and sell 6000 of one format vs 3000 of another, feel free to post a link. The cost to make things general has a depreciation to it, last I checked licensing fees generally do not.

Sony is making good progress, packing Spidey in with their new SKU exposes people to the BD capabilities, and their marketing is going toward moving it as a game machine, they should be applauded for that effort - which pains me to say as a Xbox guy... but I'd like to get a PS3 one day and I want it to not suck when I do.

I still maintain that we won't see much reliable from the weekly figures for the holiday, too many sales either skewing things to look good/bad for EITHER side, and if they still really do not have Wal-Mart data then I question even debating them all like we have been.

After all that, you do realize that "Transformers" was the only real blockbuster on HD-DVD since it came out all this time right?

 

[meStevo]

After all that, you do realize that "Transformers" was the only real blockbuster on HD-DVD since it came out all this time right?

If all that mattered was the #1 title for any given format, rental stores would be a lot smaller.

 

[IcEWoLF]

LoL, now I wonder how he went from the buying the discs to the rental discussion, eh ok..

 

[meStevo]

LoL, now I wonder how he went from the buying the discs to the rental discussion, eh ok..

You don't connect the dots very well, so going to leave this discussion as-is and let the others continue it for now.

 

[vurbano]

This Holiday season will decide the future of the format war, .........

Horsesh&t

 

[akodoreign]

Horsesh&t

It's going to be a long battle. Sony Betamax owned 100% of the market at one point. Let us not forget.

And Sony UMD was touted as a great format as well.

• BetaMax (1975)
• Mini-Disc (1991)
• Sony Dynamic Digital Sound (1993)
• Multi-Media Compact Disc (1994)
• ATRAC (1999)
• HiFD (1998)
• Super Audio CD (1999)
• Hi-MD (2004)

Just remember the track record Sony has for formats before people get to exited

And also remember Beta max was a superior format to VHS. and we know how that one shook out.

 

[allargon]

After all that, you do realize that "Transformers" was the only real blockbuster on HD-DVD since it came out all this time right?

Transformers was the only exclusive blockbuster on HD-DVD. Until Paramount/Dreamworks, Universal was the only exclusive major studio for HD-DVD. They have hits but this year have not made too many major big budget action blockbusters. They were smart enough (except for "Evan Almighty") to stick to comedies, dramas, etc. Better to be a profitable studio than to be risky with big budget action movies.

300 and "Planet Earth" are wildly successful on both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD.

You can argue the PS1 and PS2. However, the last major CE hit Sony had was the 3.5" floppy. Ouch!

 

[akodoreign]

Transformers was the only exclusive blockbuster on HD-DVD. Until Paramount/Dreamworks, Universal was the only exclusive major studio for HD-DVD. They have hits but this year have not made too many major big budget action blockbusters. They were smart enough (except for "Evan Almighty") to stick to comedies, dramas, etc. Better to be a profitable studio than to be risky with big budget action movies.

300 and "Planet Earth" are wildly successful on both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD.

You can argue the PS1 and PS2. However, the last major CE hit Sony had was the 3.5" floppy. Ouch!

I would qualify your statement by saying the PS1 and 2 are consoles. and raise the ante with the up till recent poor sales of the PS3.

Which is strange in its own way. Since the PS3 drives the Blue Ray sales while it only has 1/3 the install base of the xbox 360

So does it make the PS3 a hit HD player? or a Poor gaming machine? both?

Or did the PS3 brand loyalty from the PS2 a superb system cause what sales of the PS3 in the first place?

It is an interesting debate.

We all know the Wii has smoked the other 2 in hardware sales, But hasn't sold nearly as much software (good titles are far and few between)

And then what happens when Dragons Quest and FFXIII comes out.

And then what if the rumors are true that Square will be porting FFXIII to computer and Dragons quest to the Wii....

All things to ponder when we look at this debate.

 

[IcEWoLF]

I dubt FFXIII will do any good on the Wii, sorry, there will be more users buying the FFXIII for the PS3 isntead of the Wii.
The PS3 is no cheap piece of equipment, which on the other hand I can't say the same for the 360.
Remember, the 360 had more dead units than the PS3.

 

[akodoreign]

I dubt FFXIII will do any good on the Wii, sorry, there will be more users buying the FFXIII for the PS3 isntead of the Wii.
The PS3 is no cheap piece of equipment, which on the other hand I can't say the same for the 360.
Remember, the 360 had more dead units than the PS3.

Your absolutely right about the 360's Heat problems. Hopefully the Larger heatsink coupled with the 60nm process thats in them solve that.

But you do know that the 360 and the PS3 are pretty much equivilant in power correct?

They are actually cousin processors both developed by IBM.
PS3 Cell processor. 7 SPE's able to do (if coded correctly) 7 functions at a time.
Xbox 360. Tripple core 2x pipelines per core able to do 6 functions at a time with minimal developer input (the software development kit is vastly superior to Sonys)

Don't get me wrong the SPE's are mathematical monsters. But thats just it. They do not handle Arbitrary code very well. It's why AI suffers so badly on that LINK
machine. LINK

But here is where Sony made the machine very poor. When first working with the Cell processor they tried to get it to do graphics LINK
When they realized this didn't work they had to hustle to find an alternative.
Nvidia was available with there RSX core on board chips. Now remember these chips are equivalent to Geoforce 5200FX cards. Not very good compared to the 360's offering of the R500 core (equivalent to the newer ATI cards out today).

so you can say the PS3 is like 7 Clydesdale pulling a cart with no wheels.

Sure It has a ton of horse power, but it is unlikely to get much done.

And FFXIII won't be on Wii. Dragons Quest will.
FFXIII will be PC/PS3 from what I have read.

 

[shanewalker]

Having stared at nice 360 graphics for a year now...I'd have to say that the PS3 is roughly the same quality. So far. I also know that the software is a generation away from being fully mature on the platform. FFXIII, Metal Gear and such will represent more accurately what the system is capable of...just like Gears of War did in the 360s second year. Specs may be close but we'll see what can be made of the differences when the developers get comfortable w/ the platform. I look at Ratchet and Clank as the first post-launch title w/ some finessed utilization of the hardware...everything else is 'just a launch title' and most are ports, so whatever.

I have to say, the thing that makes me quite hopeful for the ultimate success and fruition of the console's capabilities is my experience w/ the Sony PSP. Much maligned and overshadowed by the cheaper competition, but a nice slow mellow mature and CONSTANT upgrades via web software updates and then, boom, you've got a really solid platform w/ great utility and a solid software library. When the price dropped, all of a sudden people see the value proposition and the better specs of the platform. It's a pattern I can easily see the PS3 repeating.