How will we know when high def discs have "arrived?"

[navychop]

In an attempt to pull us together on common ground- How will we know when high def discs have "arrived?" Mind you, never mind WHICH format, or both formats- just the concept of when it's succeeded as a product?

I submit that will happen when the first movie or mainstream title is released on a high definition disc - and NOT on regular DVD.

Any other ideas? Some dollar figure? Sales rate? Something else?

You see, we DO have common interests, like seeing whichever or both succeeds in the marketplace. And then to push for more built in features- more memory, hard drives, recorders, OTA tuners, etc.

 

[JoeSp]

Navychop, I believe that you would have to see fully functioning players under $300 (Toshiba is already doing that with last years model) and discs sales in the millions every month. The BD camp is ahead of the DVD adoption rate on discs sales based on the November launch of the PS3 and several other manufacturer's standalone BD players while the HD-DVD camp is setting at 100,000 sales for their standalones in a year. My guess is that you would have to see these kind of numbers every month in standalone sales along with a million plus discs sales to say that High Def players and discs have arrived. We are a far way from that right now. And I don't believe that serious folks will consider the PS3 in this equation (even though it is an excellent player and might be the only current BD player that can be upgraded to all the BD-Java Specs.) My guess is by Easter of 08 we shouldl know which direction this market is headed. And yes, I would not be surprised to see both formats still scraping for king-of-the-hill by then.

 

[KyDave]

I submit that will happen when the first movie or mainstream title is released on a high definition disc - and NOT on regular DVD.

I would think that the first HD title that just outsells the regular DVD would also be a milestone and signify that HD discs have arrived. I can remember reports of the first DVD to outsell the VHS version (but I can't remember the title - Titanic, maybe?)

 

[navychop]

Navychop, I believe that you would have to see fully functioning players under $300 (Toshiba is already doing that with last years model) and discs sales in the millions every month.

You wouldn't?

The BD camp is ahead of the DVD adoption rate on discs sales based on the November launch of the PS3 and several other manufacturer's standalone BD players while the HD-DVD camp is setting at 100,000 sales for their standalones in a year. My guess is that you would have to see these kind of numbers every month in standalone sales along with a million plus discs sales to say that High Def players and discs have arrived. We are a far way from that right now. And I don't believe that serious folks will consider the PS3 in this equation (even though it is an excellent player and might be the only current BD player that can be upgraded to all the BD-Java Specs.) My guess is by Easter of 08 we shouldl know which direction this market is headed. And yes, I would not be surprised to see both formats still scraping for king-of-the-hill by then.

At the end of March, I think the unit sales figures totaled about 1.5 million, both formats together. I think that was since inception, not YTD. All the same, figuring for some sales growth, they might be selling 300,000 to 400,000 high definition discs per month now. Maybe more, if AVS can keep stoking the HD DVD fires . Yep, a long way to a million a month.

Blu-ray dedicated player sales will probably remain low until the end of summer, as people await cheaper players that also have more features and are compliant with the Oct 31 ("1.1") standards. HD DVD might be getting a good long ride here. Good enough/long enough?

Yep, I want a player that supports high end audio, internet connectivity, reads almost all DVD and CD formats, and also supports the Oct specs. And is going to win the format war or be a co-winner. And cost no more than $600. I still expect it to be a Blu-ray player, but I'm just not so sure anymore.

 

[navychop]

I would think that the first HD title that just outsells the regular DVD would also be a milestone and signify that HD discs have arrived. I can remember reports of the first DVD to outsell the VHS version (but I can't remember the title - Titanic, maybe?)

Now I didn't think of that. Yes, that would certainly be a milestone to celebrate.

 

[dfergie]

I would think that the first HD title that just outsells the regular DVD would also be a milestone and signify that HD discs have arrived. I can remember reports of the first DVD to outsell the VHS version (but I can't remember the title - Titanic, maybe?)

My thoughts also...

 

[JoeSp]

I would think that the first HD title that just outsells the regular DVD would also be a milestone and signify that HD discs have arrived. I can remember reports of the first DVD to outsell the VHS version (but I can't remember the title - Titanic, maybe?)[/QUOTE

One of the high def formats could be making major inroads way before we might see this happen. I would think that we are still two or three years away from that happening.

 

[tonyp56]

IMO, when there is only 1 format, not two or more, and when players go below $200 so that the masses will be likely to go out and get one. Until then, we're just circling something that is dying.

 

[JonUrban]

When most manufacturers offer a universal player at a reasonable price, the customer will feel that he is "protected" from any format war shake up, and these things will start getting real public recognition.

I think that people will pay a higher price for an HD player, as long as they don't have to buy two, or one with the risk that they bought the "wrong" one, or one that cannot play all of the new movies that may come out.

"Honey, we can't play this disc without getting another HD player.................................., Honey?"

The universal player is the key. But it should be a "real" universal player like the Samsung, not the LG.

 

[Pepper]

I'm on a slightly slower adoption cycle for this one. For me it will be the day you can't find a standard dvd at walmart, but bunches of hd-dvd's in the bargain bins.