Well, I'm unexcited because I'm unexcited about 4K at present. What I'd really like to see is a new chipset that can handle MPEG-HEVC. When will that be incorporated into Dish receivers? I presume even the HwS can't decompress HEVC.
I presume you are referring to H.265, the latest MPEG-HEVC. The second version was just finalized in July, but won't be published until late this year, and then encoder/decoders can be manufactured. So, no H.265 ready for market encoder/decoder exists. Just lots of demonstrations. This is why DircTV is considering "bonding" transponders (as has been demonstrated on the commercial end) for 4K content right away.
BUT, the first H.265 encoders/decoders are going to be for the commercial market for practical reasons: the transportation and turn-around of 4K content to TV networks and MVPD's from commercial sat and fiber companies and, also, for MVPD's to experiment on prototype consumer STB's for internal testing so they can design a 4K STB for the consumer market for their system. The commercial end of it is pretty easy and
relatively cheap (the first gen encoders/decoders will be expensive themselves). It's pretty easy for the MVPD's and commercial sat companies and broadcast nets to change out the current encoders/decoders for those capable of 4K, and they will do it pretty quick so they can experiment and tweak with it, but the ability of the
consumer-home subscriber to view the 4K content is a completely different story. Remember, we are talking about streaming real-time live feeds of video/data using the limited bandwidth of commercial and DBS satellites, not the internet side of 4K.
I do NOT think we are going to see H.265 implemented by DBS for anything other than 4K because it would cost too much money to change out everyone's STB for SD and HD content, and that change out would have to be at Dish and DirecTV's expense. So, you will have to develop some excitement for 4K UHD if you want H.265 coming to you from Dish or DirecTV.
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Since no finalized second version H.265 encoders/decoders exist (and no chip in any of the STB's in homes today have sufficient power to do the work), this means a
change out of STB at the home if a consumer is even to have a chance of watching any 4K content that may be available form their MVPD without the terrible
inefficiencies of bonding transponders or other
inefficient schemes.
And a consumer, as I understand it, must have HDMI 2.0 to transport the 4K from the STB to the UHDTV. I can see lots of people being a bit irritated that they have to buy another HDMI cable for this new UHDTV and peripherals.
4K over the internet is a reality today and with the latest Roku's and I think even PS4's. I don't believe they are using H.265, but I think either Broadcom's propriety encoding/decoding it developed especially for the 4K via internet market or some other company's encoding/decoding for 4K, but I'm not certain of that. Also, the Broadcom propriety method can be used by MVPD's, the cable cos. and DBS companies, if they so wish. However, it seems like the RF distribution companies like the commercial sat companies and Dish, DirecTV, etc. are waiting for H.265 and passing on the Broadcom solution, perhaps, because part of the the MPEG H.265 is also being designed with DVB, DVB-S in mind. H.265 is supposed to provide a 50% increase in data throughput compared to H.264, the current MPEG4 spec used by Dish, DirecTV, and some others. That's pretty darn good for a FIRST generation encoder. Naturally, future H.265 encoders will get even better, as has been the history or MPEG encoders, bringing even higher efficiencies.
So, we have a long way to go for adaption of still in the oven technology and reaching that tipping point of sufficient 4K content for all of this to make economic sense, but I do believe 4K will be the reality and won't end up in the recycle bin with 3D.
It's going to be like the very first days of HD. A very tiny number of people were enjoying the very limited amount of content for YEARS, before the chicken and the egg met at the intersection. I do think that 4K will be adopted and mainstream much sooner than HD was, and with the new OLED HDTV's coming out, that could also drive 4K sales (LG has an "affordable" 4K OLED, and CNET stated it was the BEST TV it had ever reviewed).
IMHO, at first we will see consumer 4K STB's offered by next year, in Dish's case probably at full retail price (like the 721 was) for subscribers: no big subsidies, and with only a few channels streaming from the sat. I think we can see 4K (and capable of HD, of course) being the ONLY TV's being manufactured within 3 years, and quite possibly OLED reaching over 50% of new TV purchases, as well. Dish and other MVPD's may offer a subsidized cheap upgrade option within 3-4 years co-coinciding with significant content by then. Movies and fictional and reality TV series may make up the majority of that content. However, the TV production side is going to have to spend real money (again) to upgrade their facilities to accommodate it. Perhaps not as much as they had to spend to upgrade to HD, but they will have to make an investment in their production and post production facilities nonetheless. However, the opportunity for the content owners to use 4K UHD to introduce far more robust copy protection will probably drive 4K to be adopted, and adopted far faster than HD was, than any other factor, and that is a mixed blessing.
Personally, I wish we would just skip 4K (Ultra HD) and focus on 8K UHD because even BEFORE the moment 4K reaches the tipping point, 8K will be touted as where we should move next. 8K can really make the significant difference the consumer is expecting, not so much 4K, and then only on really big screens.
