http://www.tvpredictions.com/smith011407.htm
HD-DVD fails to pull support away from Blu-ray at the Consumer Electronics Show
By Robert Smith
Palo Alto, CA (January 13, 2007) -- Did the Consumer Electronics Show help us resolve the “format war” between HD-DVD and Blu-ray for the next generation disc format? Maybe.
Before the show, this observer wrote that CES might point out that the Blu-ray strategy was working. The show was certainly a big boost to Blu-ray, bigger than I had predicted. But the real story is that the movie studios have asserted their authority and their will to find a solution.
Studio support for the two formats remained basically unchanged. Before the show, 7 out of 8 of the major film studios supported Blu-ray, and 3 out of 8 supported HD-DVD. I predicted (50/50 chance) that Lionsgate might start supporting HD-DVD, but it did not. Some had thought that Disney might do likewise, but no change there either. ____________________________________________
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The five Blu-ray studios were enthusiastic and almost ebullient in their support of Blu-ray. Sony promised over 100 new titles and announced Casino Royale for March. Fox put forward their market research that purports to show that Blu-ray has taken the sales lead. Lots of great titles were announced or mentioned.
In a move that puzzled many observers, Universal, the only studio exclusively supporting HD DVD, had little to say and announced no new titles.
Casino Royale comes to Blu-ray in March.
Before the show, Blu-ray had 55 announced titles compared to 15 for HD DVD. As a result of firm announcements made at the show, Blu-ray climbed to 73 and HD DVD to 20. Given the confirmed support configuration of the major studios, it is clear that Blu-ray will have a much larger number of titles for the next six months and probably for the whole year.
In a different demonstration of studio authority, Warner Bros., the most important of the studios and a key supporter of both formats, announced a dual-format disc, called Total HD. Essentially gluing together HD DVD on one side and Blu-ray on the other, the disc is claimed to allow a full 30GB of HD DVD storage and 50GB for Blu-ray.
It is not clear what this disc will mean to the format war. Retailers will certainly like it because it reduces the number of SKU’s and simplifies their process. Customers may feel that it reduces their risk somewhat; it does not, however, help them in selecting which player to invest in.
Warner says they will start using this THD disk this summer. I predict that Paramount, which also supports both formats, will also start using THD, responding to pressure from retailers if nothing else.
On the hardware front, things were mostly rather predictable, with a big but curious exception.
Samsung announced a second-generation Blu-ray player, less expensive and supposedly better than their much-criticized first generation player. Sharp showed a player, and Sony showed two models. Philips, Panasonic, and Pioneer all continue to support Blu-ray. Sony announced that over 1 million PlayStation 3 systems had been shipped to North America by the end of the year (but no one knows how many of those are used for watching movies.)
For HD DVD, Toshiba announced a new mid-level player. High-end manufacturer Onkyo announced plans for a player, but RCA, which had shipped a rebadged Toshiba last year, announced that it is no longer marketing HD DVD. Microsoft also announced that it is working with Chinese manufacturers to make cheaper players; Microsoft continues to sell its XBox 360 add-on drive but did not announce. Toshiba stated that 175,000 HD DVD players had been sold last year.
Many observers were waiting for a combo player, and I had predicted that LG might announce or show one (50/50 chance). They did. Their new combo player is priced at $1199 and will ship soon. Oddly, it appears to be a full-fledged Blu-ray player, but does not include any of the interactive features of HD DVD, only playing the HD DVD movies. This lack of compliance with the HD DVD specification has created a problem with the DVD Forum, which licenses HD DVD. It is not clear what will happen.
HD-DVD fails to pull support away from Blu-ray at the Consumer Electronics Show
By Robert Smith
Palo Alto, CA (January 13, 2007) -- Did the Consumer Electronics Show help us resolve the “format war” between HD-DVD and Blu-ray for the next generation disc format? Maybe.
Before the show, this observer wrote that CES might point out that the Blu-ray strategy was working. The show was certainly a big boost to Blu-ray, bigger than I had predicted. But the real story is that the movie studios have asserted their authority and their will to find a solution.
Studio support for the two formats remained basically unchanged. Before the show, 7 out of 8 of the major film studios supported Blu-ray, and 3 out of 8 supported HD-DVD. I predicted (50/50 chance) that Lionsgate might start supporting HD-DVD, but it did not. Some had thought that Disney might do likewise, but no change there either. ____________________________________________
____________________________________________
The five Blu-ray studios were enthusiastic and almost ebullient in their support of Blu-ray. Sony promised over 100 new titles and announced Casino Royale for March. Fox put forward their market research that purports to show that Blu-ray has taken the sales lead. Lots of great titles were announced or mentioned.
In a move that puzzled many observers, Universal, the only studio exclusively supporting HD DVD, had little to say and announced no new titles.
Casino Royale comes to Blu-ray in March.
Before the show, Blu-ray had 55 announced titles compared to 15 for HD DVD. As a result of firm announcements made at the show, Blu-ray climbed to 73 and HD DVD to 20. Given the confirmed support configuration of the major studios, it is clear that Blu-ray will have a much larger number of titles for the next six months and probably for the whole year.
In a different demonstration of studio authority, Warner Bros., the most important of the studios and a key supporter of both formats, announced a dual-format disc, called Total HD. Essentially gluing together HD DVD on one side and Blu-ray on the other, the disc is claimed to allow a full 30GB of HD DVD storage and 50GB for Blu-ray.
It is not clear what this disc will mean to the format war. Retailers will certainly like it because it reduces the number of SKU’s and simplifies their process. Customers may feel that it reduces their risk somewhat; it does not, however, help them in selecting which player to invest in.
Warner says they will start using this THD disk this summer. I predict that Paramount, which also supports both formats, will also start using THD, responding to pressure from retailers if nothing else.
On the hardware front, things were mostly rather predictable, with a big but curious exception.
Samsung announced a second-generation Blu-ray player, less expensive and supposedly better than their much-criticized first generation player. Sharp showed a player, and Sony showed two models. Philips, Panasonic, and Pioneer all continue to support Blu-ray. Sony announced that over 1 million PlayStation 3 systems had been shipped to North America by the end of the year (but no one knows how many of those are used for watching movies.)
For HD DVD, Toshiba announced a new mid-level player. High-end manufacturer Onkyo announced plans for a player, but RCA, which had shipped a rebadged Toshiba last year, announced that it is no longer marketing HD DVD. Microsoft also announced that it is working with Chinese manufacturers to make cheaper players; Microsoft continues to sell its XBox 360 add-on drive but did not announce. Toshiba stated that 175,000 HD DVD players had been sold last year.
Many observers were waiting for a combo player, and I had predicted that LG might announce or show one (50/50 chance). They did. Their new combo player is priced at $1199 and will ship soon. Oddly, it appears to be a full-fledged Blu-ray player, but does not include any of the interactive features of HD DVD, only playing the HD DVD movies. This lack of compliance with the HD DVD specification has created a problem with the DVD Forum, which licenses HD DVD. It is not clear what will happen.
