http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/...ger-Just-an-Adorable-Little-Experiment-135851
While Google Fiber gets a massive amount of media hype (justly based on its disruptive speed and price point), the reality is that despite numerous city "launches" -- not that many people can actually get the service. But while many ISPs and analysts have dismissed Google Fiber as an adorable experiment that will never impact them, many of these folks appear to be changing their tune as Google Fiber's list of under-construction and potential markets continues to grow.
For example, Bernstein analyst Carlos Kirjner used to think Google Fiber was just a cute experiment designed to ignite a conversation about the lack of broadband competition. But with this week's announcement that Google is considering major metro markets like Los Angeles and Chicago the analyst says he's not so sure any more:quote:Although Google’s announcement is just that, could lead to nothing, and requires minimum capital commitment by Alphabet at this stage, it increases on the margin the likelihood that Google Fiber will pass a large number of locations within five years. Correspondingly, it increases the chances that we will see Alphabet’s capex in the non-core businesses, or what the company has referred to as “Other Bets,” increase significantly.
Indeed, if Google Fiber were to build out in Chicago and/or Los Angeles and their surroundings, it could precipitate increased interest from other major metro areas, making it easier for Fiber to scale up. Our high end estimate of 20-25 million homes passed by Google Fiber may prove less aggressive than we thought.
While Google Fiber is estimated to only have around 100,000 to 200,000 customers right now, the amount of work in the pipeline has become borderline massive. On top of existing launches in Provo, Kansas City, and Austin, Google Fiber's busy constructing networks in San Antonio, Atlanta, Nashville, Salt Lake City, Raleigh/Durham, Charlotte, and has announced likely launches in Tampa, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Irvine, Louisville, San Diego, San Jose, and now LA and Chicago.
And unlike many gigabit builds that will only touch high-end developments and university dorms, Google claims to be putting in the heavy lifting to uniformly reach what it claims will be a "significant" number of neighborhoods. Even if those builds only reach 30% of those cities populations, we're still talking about a fiber to the home build that's significantly larger than most analysts (myself included) ever imagined.
While Google Fiber gets a massive amount of media hype (justly based on its disruptive speed and price point), the reality is that despite numerous city "launches" -- not that many people can actually get the service. But while many ISPs and analysts have dismissed Google Fiber as an adorable experiment that will never impact them, many of these folks appear to be changing their tune as Google Fiber's list of under-construction and potential markets continues to grow.
For example, Bernstein analyst Carlos Kirjner used to think Google Fiber was just a cute experiment designed to ignite a conversation about the lack of broadband competition. But with this week's announcement that Google is considering major metro markets like Los Angeles and Chicago the analyst says he's not so sure any more:quote:Although Google’s announcement is just that, could lead to nothing, and requires minimum capital commitment by Alphabet at this stage, it increases on the margin the likelihood that Google Fiber will pass a large number of locations within five years. Correspondingly, it increases the chances that we will see Alphabet’s capex in the non-core businesses, or what the company has referred to as “Other Bets,” increase significantly.
Indeed, if Google Fiber were to build out in Chicago and/or Los Angeles and their surroundings, it could precipitate increased interest from other major metro areas, making it easier for Fiber to scale up. Our high end estimate of 20-25 million homes passed by Google Fiber may prove less aggressive than we thought.
While Google Fiber is estimated to only have around 100,000 to 200,000 customers right now, the amount of work in the pipeline has become borderline massive. On top of existing launches in Provo, Kansas City, and Austin, Google Fiber's busy constructing networks in San Antonio, Atlanta, Nashville, Salt Lake City, Raleigh/Durham, Charlotte, and has announced likely launches in Tampa, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Irvine, Louisville, San Diego, San Jose, and now LA and Chicago.
And unlike many gigabit builds that will only touch high-end developments and university dorms, Google claims to be putting in the heavy lifting to uniformly reach what it claims will be a "significant" number of neighborhoods. Even if those builds only reach 30% of those cities populations, we're still talking about a fiber to the home build that's significantly larger than most analysts (myself included) ever imagined.
