FTTP growth explodes, take rates dip

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LAS VEGAS--Fiber-to-the-premises deployments are continuing their explosive growth with no signs of future slowing, according to new data from Render Vanderslice & Associates. But the percentage of consumers subscribing to the service is sliding as more FTTP is deployed without video service.

There are now 2,367,300 homes passed by fiber in North America, up 46% from about 1.6 million just six months ago, according to Render Vanderslice. The number of homes connected with fiber is now 322,700, up more than 51% from six months ago and up more than 120% from a year ago. And the number of homes being marketed now stands at 1,754,300; a year ago, it was only about 413,000.

In addition, there are now 652 U.S. communities with some form of live fiber-to-the-premises service, up from just 398 six months ago. They exist in 46 states but not yet in Alaska, Hawaii or New Hampshire, for example.

Researcher Michael Render predicts this dramatic growth will continue next year as well, thanks in large part to deployment from Verizon Communications. By late 2006 or early 2007, the number of FTTP subscribers in North America could reach 1 million, he said.

However, compared to some other geographies, North America’s numbers are not as impressive. As of September, Japan boasted 2.7 million FTTP subscribers, and Europe boasted 892,000, while North America has seen only 322,700.

“We’re still behind,” Render said.

Still, FTTP growth has far exceeded that of copper and coaxial cable in this country, with more than 100% growth every year. Next year, Render believes the growth of FTTP deployment could reach 150%, far surpassing the highest-ever annual growth rates of coaxial cable or copper (130% and 75%, respectively).

Take rates for North American FTTP are declining, however, from 26% in March to 22% today. Render attributed the effect in large part to Verizon’s pushing infrastructure deployment in advance of video services, delaying the higher take rates that come with a triple-play offering. Among non-Bells, 88% of current FTTP deployments offer triple-play services, he said, and non-Bells are now seeing take rates of 48%, up from 47% a year ago.

In greenfield deployments, service providers are achieving take rates averaging 75%, while underserved areas are seeing 65% take rates and competitive overbuilds are seeing take rates of 33%.

http://telephonyonline.com/fttp/news/ftth_fttp_growth_100405/
 

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