Extremely Early NFL Flex Schedule Guesses

[Iceberg Slim]

We've only played 5 weeks, so a lot will change between now and the the beginning of NBC's flex package.

But its always fun to prognosticate.

Remember that Fox and CBS can each protect a certain number of games as well.

Each team can appear in primetime a max of 5 times, with 3 teams allowed to appear 6 times.

WEEK 11

Penciled in game : Dallas at Washington

I think its a lock NBC keeps this one. No network would turn down a chance to show the ratings monster that is the Cowboys, and they're playing an arch rival to boot.


WEEK 12

Penciled in game: Indy at San Diego

Pretty strong chance NBC keeps this one. Both teams are underachieving so far this year, but they remain marquee teams with lots of recognizable players. If those teams continue to struggle, Jets/Titans could be a darkhorse alternative.

WEEK 13

Penciled in game: Chicago at Minnesota

This is the first game that I think has a decent chance of getting bumped. Both teams are solid, but boring to watch. Peterson is a draw, but there are better games on the schedule. Packers/Panthers, Broncos/Jets, NYG/Washington, and New England/Pittsburgh would be better choices. I'd expect FOX and CBS respectively to protect those last two. Plus the Giants and Skins were already on NBC in the first game of the year, so they probably can't have that same matchup again anyway.

WEEK 14

Penciled in game: New England at Seattle

This game has lost a lot of its luster with Brady out and Seattle playing like garbage thus far. Potential replacements include Washington/Baltimore, Jacksonville/Chicago, and Philly/NYG. I'm sure FOX is protecting Dallas/ Pittsburgh.

WEEK 15

Penciled in game: NYG at Dallas

Another 99 percent lock to stay put. Denver/Carolina would have a chance to replace most games, but not this one.

WEEK 16

Penciled in game: San Diego at Tampa Bay

Doesn't really seem like too exciting of a game on paper, especially if the Chargers' struggles continue. I could see it getting replaced by a potential shootout between Denver and Buffalo, or any one of NYG/Carolina, Pittsburgh/Tennessee, or Philly/Washington.

WEEK 17

No game penciled in !

The League will wait until after the week 16 games to make sure a game with playoff implications is put in primetime. At this point there look to be at least 6 games between potential playoff teams, so I'm going pick 1 out of the bunch and go with New Orleans/Carolina in a game to decide the NFC South Champion.


It seems like every NFC EAST matchup is primetime worthy.

 

[SabresRule]

Nice to meet a new member.

Tell us a bit about yourself- where are you from? Who are your favorite teams?

As for the games:

Week 11's staying.

Week 12 could go either way- both teams are at or above the .500 mark and could go either way. However, there are a lack of other big games, so I think this stays.

Week 13- I thought the Bears would be a horrible team, a team I picked to finish 1-15. Oops. Nonetheless, Minnesota will probably recover in time.

Week 14- FOX has Boys/Steelers, for FOX televises games when NFC teams visit AFC teams. Wanted to correct you. I say Eagles/Giants- don't expect Philly to be this bad the rest of the year.

Week 15 stays- you know NBC wants to see a game where Dallas will be out for blood.

Week 16- Denver/Buffalo will likely be the replacement.

Week 17- I'll ask about it once we find out who's in and out of the playoffs.

 

[BillD1984]

Two predictions from this Patriots fan:

Week 14- New England at Seattle: yer outta here!

Week 17- Although it's way too early to pinpoint a game here, Pats at Bills looks like an early favorite.

Pats- Bills playing a night game Dec. 28 in Orchard Park? Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!

 

[SabresRule]

Week 17- Although it's way too early to pinpoint a game here, Pats at Bills looks like an early favorite.

Pats- Bills playing a night game Dec. 28 in Orchard Park? Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope this game is more competitive than the one these teams played last year.

Even though New England killed them, I doubt you would have rubbed it in my face the way vurbano did to HD MM in the Browns/Giants preseason game.

 

[Mets82]

I would actually like to see them go against the grain a couple of times. What that means is that give some other teams a chance in prime time. I think last year or the year before almost every game involved the AFC West. Spread it out a little bit.
For week 14, Washington/Baltimore could be a sleeper game. Both teams are playing well right now. I also think you could only be on NBC a certain amount of time.

 

[BillD1984]

Let's hope this game is more competitive than the one these teams played last year.

Even though New England killed them, I doubt you would have rubbed it in my face the way vurbano did to HD MM in the Browns/Giants preseason game.

You've got that right.

 

[CharlesO]

IIRC, Dallas and New England are at the max number of games that be televised on SNF and MNF. That means no other games involving them can be flexed into NBC schedule, so as to not take too much value away from FOX and CBS.

Based on that:

Week 11- LOCK

Week12- This could be interesting, Indy/SD remains viable as long as one is still in playoff chase. Jets/Titans is a hard sell unless Vince Young is back as the starter in Tenn., plus CBS could lock this once since it doesn't have to block NE/MIA. FOX also likely locks NYG/AZ. Carolina at Atlanta is a dark horse.

Week13- Chicago/Minnesota remains likely unless the Vikings totally tank. Broncos/Jets would the be replacement if the Jets aren't slotted into week 12.

Week14-Unless the Seahawks have a remarkable turnaround, this game is gone. Washington at Baltimore the likely pick, Bears can't be on two weeks in a row.

Week 15-LOCK

Week 16-SD/TB likely gone with BUF/DEN the pick. The NFL needs to flex a game for FOX as well for the 4pm slot(CAR/NYG or PHI/WSH).

Week 17-Whatever game has the biggest playoff implications.

 

[BillD1984]

The Patriots are currently scheduled for five primetime games (four of those are in the next six weeks), but I think the Seahawks game will be flexed out.

 

[SabresRule]

Given the recentr history between the Pats and Chargers since 2005, how much does Bill regard them as a Patriot rival?

 

[BillD1984]

Given the recentr history between the Pats and Chargers since 2005, how much does Bill regard them as a Patriot rival?

I don't consider them a "rival" like I do the Steelers and Colts.

The Pats have had two AFC Championship games each with the Colts and Steelers, plus two more divisional playoffs with the Steelers and one divisional playoff with the Colts.............all since January 1997.

Plus the Patriots have played the Jaguars four times in the playoffs since January 1997 (1 AFC Championship, 1 Divisional Playoff and 2 Wildcard Playoffs).

 

[Jimbo]

IIRC, Dallas and New England are at the max number of games that be televised on SNF and MNF. That means no other games involving them can be flexed into NBC schedule, so as to not take too much value away from FOX and CBS.

Based on that:

Week 11- LOCK

Week12- This could be interesting, Indy/SD remains viable as long as one is still in playoff chase. Jets/Titans is a hard sell unless Vince Young is back as the starter in Tenn., plus CBS could lock this once since it doesn't have to block NE/MIA. FOX also likely locks NYG/AZ. Carolina at Atlanta is a dark horse.

Week13- Chicago/Minnesota remains likely unless the Vikings totally tank. Broncos/Jets would the be replacement if the Jets aren't slotted into week 12.

Week14-Unless the Seahawks have a remarkable turnaround, this game is gone. Washington at Baltimore the likely pick, Bears can't be on two weeks in a row.

Week 15-LOCK

Week 16-SD/TB likely gone with BUF/DEN the pick. The NFL needs to flex a game for FOX as well for the 4pm slot(CAR/NYG or PHI/WSH).

Week 17-Whatever game has the biggest playoff implications.

Week 12 Titans ..... Titans are better without Vince Young playing, when he gets healthy I bet you see them lose a few ...


Steeler's Titans will be a HUGE game that no one is talking about.
These teams use to play one another twice a year, another very physical battle.
Just noticed that this game is not till week 15, I was thinking it was like week 11-12.
If the playoffs ride on this game for either team, this will be huge.
This game will be the flex game if the Cowboy's are already out of games according to the max number as Charles said.

Jimbo

 

[Iceberg Slim]

I think its becoming pretty apparent that the Cowboys are equivalent to last year's Patriots in the sense that Dallas vs a crappy team is a better draw ( in terms of ratings, not from a true fans perspective) than a matchup of 2 really good teams not named Dallas. They're polarizing because you either hate them or love them; very few are indifferent about them.

In fact, Dallas could reach the majority of a National audience in almost all their games this year. For a team in the central time zone, where 1 oclock is the default starting time, they only have 3 games, home and away combined, starting at 1 all year. Their 5 games already have all reached most of the country...2 primetime games, and their three 4pm games have reached over 75 percent of America. They only have maybe 2 or 3 games all the season that won't be shown almost nationwide. If you were a Cowboys fan living anywhere in the country, getting Sunday Ticket would pretty much be a waste.

 

[hockeynut5150]

I don't consider them a "rival" like I do the Steelers and Colts.

The Pats have had two AFC Championship games each with the Colts and Steelers, plus two more divisional playoffs with the Steelers and one divisional playoff with the Colts.............all since January 1997.

Plus the Patriots have played the Jaguars four times in the playoffs since January 1997 (1 AFC Championship, 1 Divisional Playoff and 2 Wildcard Playoffs).

plus the Colts were in our division before they moved to the AFC south

 

[SabresRule]

the Colts were in our division before they moved to the AFC south

But neither team ever was really good around the same team.

This rivalry became supercharged when they moved divisions.

 

[SabresRule]

IMO, the G-Men/Cards game could replace Indy/San Diego, especially with the Colts and Bolts looking rather sluggish so far.

 

[BillD1984]

IMO, the G-Men/Cards game could replace Indy/San Diego, especially with the Colts and Bolts looking rather sluggish so far.

That's not happening, at least according to what a source told the radio show I was listening to today.

Under the "flex" rules, both CBS and FOX can protect fives games each (but no more than 1 game per week) between weeks 11-16. Neither network is allowed to protect a week 17 game, giving NBC carte blanche to cherry-pick a game with playoff implications.

The following are the games protected by CBS and Fox:

Week 11- San Diego at Pittsburgh (CBS)
Chicago at Green Bay (FOX)

Week 12- NY Jets at Tennessee (CBS)
NY Giants at Arizona (FOX)

Week 13- Pittsburgh at New England (CBS)
NY Giants at Washington (FOX)

Week 14- Jacksonville at Chicago (CBS)
Dallas at Pittsburgh (FOX)

Week 15- No games protected

Week 16- Pittsburgh at Tennessee (CBS)
Philadelphia at Washington (FOX)

Also, keep in mind that only a maximum of three teams are allowed six primetime appearances each (NBC, ESPN and NFLN games). The rest of the NFL is allowed a maximum of five primetime appearances each.

 

[SabresRule]

Oh. I stand corrected, Bill.

I guess Bolts/Colts may be the only option, unless the Jets go on a hot streak.

 

[BillD1984]

Oh. I stand corrected, Bill.

I guess Bolts/Colts may be the only option, unless the Jets go on a hot streak.

Who are the Jets playing that week?

 

[SabresRule]

Who are the Jets playing that week?

Tennessee, which has the league's top record.

 

[BillD1984]

Tennessee, which has the league's top record.

Sabres,
sorry, my bad. NYJ-TEN is on the protected list also. Look at the list above.