Chicago Cubs — They've looked better on paper than on the field all season. The big hope is for shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and pitchers Kerry Wood and Scott Williamson to provide an enormous lift when they come off the disabled list Friday. But Garciaparra probably never will be a top-shelf player again and Wood is a long shot to remain sound long enough to bolster the weak bullpen.
New York Mets — The Mets have some impressive front-line talent but too many soft spots, most significantly in the bullpen. It doesn't help that Jose Reyes leads off with a .300 on-base percentage, teams run at will on catcher Mike Piazza (opposing base-stealers are 67-for-76) and center fielder Carlos Beltran hasn't been nearly the player they were counting on (.267, 12 HRs, 7 stolen bases in 98 games).
Philadelphia — Too many streak hitters and not enough starting pitching. This team's chemistry hasn't been right for years and isn't likely to improve enough to get the job done.
Washington — The Nationals were a fun story for a few months when they were leading the NL East but there were strong clues that it wouldn't last: They were winning most of their close games (24-8 in one-run games), they weren't hitting (they have a major-league fewest 404 runs and 73 HRs) and they were the only team in the division being outscored. The pitching staff has hit the skids, free-agent shortstop Cristian Guzman has been a bust (.187, 3 HRs, 13 RBI in 92 games), Vinny Castilla misses Coors Field (from .271, 35 HRs and 131 RBI in 148 games with Colorado in 2004 to .246 with 6 HRs and 34 RBI in 96 games with Washington in 2005), and they've lost their last 10 one-run games.
Any NL West team — This division is an embarrassment to everyone who cares about baseball. One of the five dysfunctional teams has to make the playoffs by default but couldn't survive for long. It would be an amazing story if Barry Bonds resurfaced to spark San Francisco to the division title, but I wouldn't count on it. If I had to pick a survivor to advance to the playoffs for an inevitable early exit, Los Angeles would be my choice. The Dodgers at least appear be getting healthier.
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New York Mets — The Mets have some impressive front-line talent but too many soft spots, most significantly in the bullpen. It doesn't help that Jose Reyes leads off with a .300 on-base percentage, teams run at will on catcher Mike Piazza (opposing base-stealers are 67-for-76) and center fielder Carlos Beltran hasn't been nearly the player they were counting on (.267, 12 HRs, 7 stolen bases in 98 games).
Philadelphia — Too many streak hitters and not enough starting pitching. This team's chemistry hasn't been right for years and isn't likely to improve enough to get the job done.
Washington — The Nationals were a fun story for a few months when they were leading the NL East but there were strong clues that it wouldn't last: They were winning most of their close games (24-8 in one-run games), they weren't hitting (they have a major-league fewest 404 runs and 73 HRs) and they were the only team in the division being outscored. The pitching staff has hit the skids, free-agent shortstop Cristian Guzman has been a bust (.187, 3 HRs, 13 RBI in 92 games), Vinny Castilla misses Coors Field (from .271, 35 HRs and 131 RBI in 148 games with Colorado in 2004 to .246 with 6 HRs and 34 RBI in 96 games with Washington in 2005), and they've lost their last 10 one-run games.
Any NL West team — This division is an embarrassment to everyone who cares about baseball. One of the five dysfunctional teams has to make the playoffs by default but couldn't survive for long. It would be an amazing story if Barry Bonds resurfaced to spark San Francisco to the division title, but I wouldn't count on it. If I had to pick a survivor to advance to the playoffs for an inevitable early exit, Los Angeles would be my choice. The Dodgers at least appear be getting healthier.
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