Analyst: Xbox One could outship PS4 three-to-one in 2013
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I would have said that it would have been the other way around if Microsoft didn't reverse its stupid daily check in copy protection scheme.
I don't buy this for a second. Microsoft's decision to reverse course certainly helped them. Every survey on gaming websites I have seen shows the PS4 as the much more popular console though. These analysts make wild claims all the time with zero accountability and rarely admit when they were way off base.
This isn't the end all be all, but look at the amazon video game sales rankings. The PS4 is currently the #6 best selling item in the video games category. The Xbox One was right near the top with PS4 when they first made the announcement to switch their policies. It is currently all the way down to #54 on the list.
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-...ref=zg_bs_videogames_pg_1?_encoding=UTF8&pg=1
PS4 is #6 and Xbox One is #54 on one of the biggest retailers in the world yet there are analysts willing to say Xbox One will win 3 to 1? That just sounds like click hunting to me.
This isn't the end all be all, but look at the amazon video game sales rankings. The PS4 is currently the #6 best selling item in the video games category. The Xbox One was right near the top with PS4 when they first made the announcement to switch their policies. It is currently all the way down to #54 on the list.
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-...ref=zg_bs_videogames_pg_1?_encoding=UTF8&pg=1
PS4 is #6 and Xbox One is #54 on one of the biggest retailers in the world yet there are analysts willing to say Xbox One will win 3 to 1? That just sounds like click hunting to me.
My prediction: there will be more XBox Ones sitting on retailer shelves after launch than PS4s, if supply chain numbers are accurate--which only reflects supply. Until I see reliable pre-order numbers, everything else is speculation. It could also reflect Microsoft's greater capital resources and capacity for production at this point.
I'm not saying the Xbox One can't outsell the PS4. The 360 did better than the PS3, especially in the US. If it does it certainly won't be 3 to 1 though. That is just absurd. Just about every console generation has had at least 2 systems that at least competed for first place. It is even more ridiculous given amazon's video game sales chart. PS4 #6 vs. Xbox One #54. In what world is that going to lead to a 3 to 1 Xbox One advantage?
I think this is just some analyst using a outlandish headline to try to get more web traffic. Nothing more. It's click bait.
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I think this is just some analyst using a outlandish headline to try to get more web traffic. Nothing more. It's click bait.
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So sales charts updated hourly from a site that doesn't have any launch day orders anymore is all you have the backup that up as a rebut to a supply chain analysis?
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That's not hard evidence but I think it says something. Plus I did say that the Xbox One could outsell the PS4 but I would say it has about a 0% chance of outselling it 3 to 1 as the headline suggests.
That wasn't my only backup either. Look at history. When is the last time any console outsold all the others by a 3 to 1 margin? That just doesn't happen. Just about every console generation seems to have good competition from at least 2 systems.
I'll put it this way. I say the PS4 will outsell the Xbox One but it will be close. Even if we just use the 2013 launch numbers the analyst says Xbox One may outsell it 3 to 1. Once we give this a chance to happen we'll see which is closer to reality.
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I'd agree with some of your points if this article and the headline was about selling, rather than shipping. It's not so it looks like an agenda/overreaching, fyi.
Have you looked at history btw? When was the last time 2 consoles launched nearly head to head? The closest is the Saturn, Virtual Boy and the Playstation over a span of 5 months in 1995. Pretty difficult to draw parallels to this launch. The last consoles to launch head to head appear to be the 3DO and Jaguar 20 years ago this November. Neither of them exactly pillars of nostalgia and innovation outside of 3DO's Road Rash being the first game I ever heard a real song from the radio in (Black Hole Sun!).
No matter how many are available, they won't meet demand at launch, even with a $100 price difference. Early adopters aren't exactly the most price conscious consumers, and there are many that will just settle for the other if one isn't available. That's where the claims this article are making become very important (if they even remotely come true).
That is a different story I suppose. If Microsoft has out produced them 3 to 1 it is possible that they could outsell them 3 to 1 in 2013. If that happened it would be very temporary though. You're right there always seems to be a console shortage at launch. Both units will be sold out on day one so if Sony had more production problems this is possible.
I misunderstood the actual prediction. I still doubt it will be right though.
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Somehow I doubt Sony had shortage issues when it came to those 60 GB launch PS3s...
The XBox One may very well outsell the PS4 here in the states, but that margin will be fairly modest. However, it is the PS4 that will likely outsell the XBox One 3-1 in Europe and Asia. We shall see.
True. I had no interest a $600 console and still wouldn't now that I could afford one.
FWIW, according to Vgchartz.com, the PS3 has now outsold the 360 globally 78.2 > 77.9.
And given how much longer the 360 has been I around, I'm speculating that 360 owners may be more eager to move on to the next generation, whereas a larger percentage of Playstation-centric gamers may linger with the PS3 a bit longer due to the continued release of acclaimed/anticipated exclusives this year and backlog generated by Plus membership.
And given how much longer the 360 has been I around, I'm speculating that 360 owners may be more eager to move on to the next generation, whereas a larger percentage of Playstation-centric gamers may linger with the PS3 a bit longer due to the continued release of acclaimed/anticipated exclusives this year and backlog generated by Plus membership.
Be interested to see what those stats are if you take Japan out of the equation, where for some reason the Xbox is about as appealing as sight seeing tours around the Fukushima power plant..
Japan sales: 9.38 (PS3) > 1.64 (360) million. But the PS3 is not even close to being the top selling console of all time in Japan, in spite of the fact that dozens of PS3 games have been developed for the Japanese market exclusively.
EDIT: BTW, the PS3 has yet to outsell the PSP, owing in part to nearly 20 million PSPs sold in Japan.
I don't think it is quite as lopsided as the PS3 in Japan but if you took the home country (US) numbers from Microsoft they would be in big trouble too. I believe the PS3 outsells the 360 in almost every country besides the US. Microsoft was able to keep the console race close by winning in the US which is one of the biggest gaming markets.
I don't have numbers to back any of this up but that is what I have heard from various gaming podcasts and websites.
I don't have numbers to back any of this up but that is what I have heard from various gaming podcasts and websites.
