Simon, are you saying the 411 will become the new standard base reciever? It might make sense to produce just ONE basic reciever in large quantities, even for non HD customers. They wouldn't have to juggle as many software releases, or worry about swap outs as people upgrade to HD. All they need is a mid-level, single MPEG-4 DVR to replace the 500s.
As John mentioned, it wouldn't have to be socketed, as long as it wasn't hardwired into the main board. (And even if it is, the chassis, HDD, & Power Supply is still reusable.)
I also agree with John that the chips have got to be in production. 6 months ago, DirecTV thought they'd be in the transition by now. And Blu-Ray/HD-DVD was supposed to be out this Christmas. PlayStation 3 will also probably be using the same chips.
And of course, Simon's right, you can't upgrade to MPEG-4 by software. I just meant it's POSSIBLE the chips are in there already, and can be "turned on", as was the case with 1st generation DirecTV boxes. I don't think it's true, but it's POSSIBLE.
Purogamer is also right about free HD-DVRs. But DISH will have to do something about the 942s. They were pretty much known to be doomed from day one, yet people bought them. Those are their best customers (and a lot of them had already got burned on the 921). A more likely scenerio- 942 owners will be given the option of a free 411, or a cheap swap-out for a 962.
(921 owners will be offered the choice of a kick in the groin, or a poke in the eye.)
Don't forget, DISH has tried hard to keep the 942 away from loyal subscribers. I think it's because they know each one out the door is going to cost them money later. It's in their best interest to shut off MPEG-2 completely as soon as possible. They will not swap-out as aggresively as DirecTV, but eventually, they will have to.
(For all we know, the 942 is priced artificially high to cover the costs of future swap-outs.)