$40?

[mastermesh]

Reading about the analog shut off, I found this out:

Between 1/1/08-3/31/09 US households may obtain $40.00 coupons towards purchase of digital-to-analog converter boxes by making a request. All coupons expire 3 months after issuance. The NTIA is to ensure that each requesting household receives, via the USPS, no more than two coupons.

I know it's still a ways off, but does anybody have any ideas on what companies are going to be producuing the boxes and how much the estimated prices is going to be? It seems like 40.00 may not be enough to cover 100% of the prices? Also, seems like if there's more than a few companies doing it there could be a price war but if only a few companies making the boxes there might be price gouging going on... and if there's a price war those who request their coupons the earliest might be getting raw end of the deal as months proceed and prices drop.

 

[navychop]

You are right, nobody knows.

From what I hear, there is some reluctance by manufacturers to produce these boxes. They will be low profit, short term products. No one knows how large the market will be. Despite the screams of opponents of the digital transition, most people simply won't even notice the changeover. That's what happened in Berlin when they shut off analog. Something like 85% of the people in the country get their TV programming via cable or satellite. Any "conversion" of a signal will be done by the provider, and folk's TVs will work the same in March 2009 as they did in January 2009.

So 15% of people may get their signal OTA only. And others have secondary TVs that get OTA. The boxes of which you speak are expected to take a digital ATSC signal, including HD signals, and downcovert them to NTSC 480i. Output may be via any combination of antenna lead, composite, coax- or possibly even S-video (at extra cost, I'm sure). Probably the cheapest boxes will output via coax only. No switches or options or decisions to make on setting it up. The PQ may be improved, marginally, assuming they get a good OTA digital signal.

AH- getting a good digital OTA signal! Their current rabbit ears built in to their TVs will be useless. They will have to connect a new antenna to this $40 wonder box. I don't think that cost is included in the $40.

SO:
Most people will not notice the transition on most or all of their TVs.
The boxes will be minimal quality, minimal function units.
The (cheapest) boxes will only provide analog outputs and will not serve as a digital tuner with digital outputs for digital TVs.
The boxes will require a separate antenna to be attached, probably at extra cost.
The majority, probably the vast majority, of TVs needing this box will be over 10 years old.
The the vast majority of TVs needing this box will be "small screen" 36" or less.
All TVs needing this box will be narrow screen, 4:3 models.
Wide screen, high resolution TVs will be more widely available and known by 2009. There is an incentive to dump the old for better PQ.
I've seen HDTVs for less than $700. Will widescreen LCD TVs be available for $300-$500 by 2009?
Sales of STB ATSC tuners to date have been disappointing. Few manufacturers are still actively making them today.

And one other interesting thing: Most analog sets are CRTs. CRTs are losing market share. Some predict they will be less than half the market in 2008, mostly due to LCD price reductions. And localities are beginning to charge CRT disposal fees. There is an incentive there to dump your CRT before you have to pay $50-$100 to have it carted away. Charities are already becoming reluctant to accept old TVs.

Given the above, will people want to sink more time, trouble and money into them? Granted, some will get a nice big screen TV and move their current TVs to another room, maybe with just OTA available. But given that you can wirelessly connect a remote TV today, why wouldn't they do that and get all their cable/sat channels on that TV? Keeping in mind they're spending the bucks for a large screen anyway.

No price war. No gouging. Limited selection. Probably get something for $40-$50, not counting antenna. Something better for $75-100, maybe. Maybe only 1 or 2 make it to market.

I think the whole $40 STB "for the economically disadvantaged" is a tempest in a tea pot. And I think that's how manufacturers view it. Limited, small market.

 

[dlsnyder]

That may be the market that Dish is aiming for with the relabelled 811 and 921. They will both offer OTA digital reception at a very low cost, but will not be capable of receiving Dish's lineup of HD programming. I'll bet that they will offer 811s for $40 as soon as those vouchers start appearing. The only way that purchasers will be able to use the box is if they have a current Dish Network subscription, even if it is for the $19.99 Family Pack.

 

[navychop]

I'll bet you're right.

Except I think they'll be open for OTA use by non-subscribers. And the buyer will get ads touting they can subscribe to Dish- they already have the box.

 

[Jim5506]

I think most of these "boxes" will be like a VCR without the CR - just a simple ATSC tuner that converts the channels to channel 3 or 4 NTSC to connect to your TV through the RF input. Probably cost about $40-$50.

 

[Shawn95GT]

I think most of these "boxes" will be like a VCR without the CR - just a simple ATSC tuner that converts the channels to channel 3 or 4 NTSC to connect to your TV through the RF input. Probably cost about $40-$50.

When I had Voom I had them install it on two SD TVs.

The SD downconverted HD looked / looks MUCH improved over the NTSC picture or even SD Digital cable for that matter. Right now my SD Tivos are recording HD anamorphic down convert from the ex-Voom boxes.

The down converted picture obviously doesn't 'pop' like real HD does, but the color improvement alone is flat out amazing.

If a $40 coupon comes in the mail I'll apply it towards my HD Tivo .

 

[navychop]

If they let you....

 

[jhamps10]

good point on that most of these tv's will be over 10 years old. I'm sure that some of the people will think, that in the long run it may be cheaper to get a new tv, espically since I just saw a 30" HD widescreen for $415. and not a sale price either. of course it was from walmart but it was a sanyo TV. looked good in the store.